{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd1e4bc2-db58-40af-be01-17aef6d87fb8", "symbol": "MEH", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi FTSE EPRA Europe Real Estate UCITS ETF D", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.974, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.088, "architecture_energy": 60.193, "architecture_maturity": 10.388, "architecture_confidence": 60.691, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.38, "rotation_up": 72.32, "upward_expansion": 64.81, "deceleration": 19.05, "rotation_down": 18.22, "downward_expansion": 20.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.49832, 31.20958, 30.766091, 30.658512 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.6, "trend_reference": 30.684053, "distance_from_trend": 0.029851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.555448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069177, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.422723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008914, "excess_performance": -0.044397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048525, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008914, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.352941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51, "relative_activity": 0.982659, "balance": 19.352941, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022403, "annualized_volatility": 0.208241, "from_high_reference": -0.050578, "from_low_reference": 0.124135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.684053, "fair_value_reference": 29.555448, "structural_low": 28.1105, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036527, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011101, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094657, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008235, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 28.613136, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 27.303404, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"relative_strength": 0.864181, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.569327, "energy": 52.759927, "activity_lines": [ 31.064454, 30.671659, 30.392189, 30.47286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.3974, "volume": 87, "typical_volume": 4.4, "trend": 30.59657, "fair_value": 29.524164, "relative_strength": 0.670637, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.796473, "energy": 56.954039, "activity_lines": [ 31.245314, 30.857919, 30.504368, 30.528508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.6717, "volume": 899, "typical_volume": 49.35, "trend": 30.66007, "fair_value": 29.54019, "relative_strength": 0.005008, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.821531, "energy": 62.142425, "activity_lines": [ 31.406074, 31.054162, 30.642536, 30.597871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.6, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 51.9, "trend": 30.684053, "fair_value": 29.555448, "relative_strength": -2.422723, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.088395, "energy": 60.193486, "activity_lines": [ 31.49832, 31.20958, 30.766091, 30.658512 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }