{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd1ebb75-9adf-4fd2-b6e3-005130e5672f", "symbol": "EMR", "name": "Empresaria Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.868, "architecture_energy": 55.895, "architecture_maturity": 34.632, "architecture_confidence": 75.928, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.01, "rotation_up": 59.17, "upward_expansion": 80.11, "deceleration": 51.48, "rotation_down": 10.84, "downward_expansion": 11.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.244667, 0.236273, 0.230976, 0.229645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.2295, "distance_from_trend": 0.132898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.306518, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.151762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.995854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.106383, "excess_performance": 0.055148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132898, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.151762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49797, "relative_activity": 0.90474, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.301574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097855, "annualized_volatility": 0.208085, "from_high_reference": -0.380952, "from_low_reference": 0.444444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2295, "fair_value_reference": 0.306518, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.025974, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.027615, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.822222, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031854, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.135134, "worst_return": -0.29375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.152154, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.158357, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.053741, "worst_return": -0.296875, 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-0.202899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.576923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.305921, "energy": 9.329355, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.225, 0.224929, 0.226292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 16197, "typical_volume": 46336.15, "trend": 0.229333, "fair_value": 0.308091, "relative_strength": -20.969986, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.10207, "energy": 9.005341, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.225, 0.224905, 0.226011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.255, "volume": 210850, "typical_volume": 54645.0, "trend": 0.229333, "fair_value": 0.30732, "relative_strength": -9.94087, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.925804, "energy": 28.840698, "activity_lines": [ 0.235, 0.230455, 0.227762, 0.227667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 49797, "typical_volume": 55040.1, "trend": 0.2295, "fair_value": 0.306518, "relative_strength": -6.995854, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.867829, "energy": 55.895272, "activity_lines": [ 0.244667, 0.236273, 0.230976, 0.229645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }