{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd214e56-75e4-480a-971a-955f244e1ad3", "symbol": "SVNS", "name": "Solvonis Therapeutics plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.547, "architecture_energy": 65.647, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.645, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 17.65, "upward_expansion": 13.73, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 65.98, "downward_expansion": 89.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001516, 0.001622, 0.001914, 0.002081 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0015, "trend_reference": 0.002283, "distance_from_trend": -0.34297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.004402, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.65928, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.180744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.451235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.34297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.65928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.471807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.28187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169428700, "relative_activity": 1.284321, "balance": 1.28187, "dry_up": 1.4484, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231795, "annualized_volatility": 0.635185, "from_high_reference": -0.625, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002283, "fair_value_reference": 0.004402, "structural_low": 0.0012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001664, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 2.551724, "worst_return": -0.592593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.045946, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.792308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.225897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.288787, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.682927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 124866841.45, "trend": 0.002426, "fair_value": 0.004826, "relative_strength": -41.247365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.572399, "energy": 72.523205, "activity_lines": [ 0.001701, 0.001864, 0.002129, 0.002253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0017, "volume": 215360488, "typical_volume": 131553018.45, "trend": 0.002396, "fair_value": 0.004686, "relative_strength": -41.169834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.628723, "energy": 65.954834, "activity_lines": [ 0.001688, 0.001805, 0.002073, 0.002207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00128, "volume": 156052131, "typical_volume": 129961525.9, "trend": 0.002332, "fair_value": 0.004543, "relative_strength": -55.530007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.391085, "energy": 79.197771, "activity_lines": [ 0.001548, 0.001683, 0.00198, 0.002135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 169428700, "typical_volume": 131920866.0, "trend": 0.002283, "fair_value": 0.004402, "relative_strength": -47.180744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.546776, "energy": 65.646798, "activity_lines": [ 0.001516, 0.001622, 0.001914, 0.002081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }