{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd21c8a3-4c3d-4113-aa12-7338b8b45087", "symbol": "601020", "name": "Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.688, "architecture_energy": 76.873, "architecture_maturity": 38.679, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 38.81, "rotation_down": 64.83, "downward_expansion": 89.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.592, 20.588981, 22.965083, 25.002239 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.15, "trend_reference": 27.592546, "distance_from_trend": -0.233489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.573392, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.870415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383921, "excess_performance": -0.340717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.63977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125203639, "relative_activity": 1.093974, "balance": 0.494114, "dry_up": 1.042753, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128168, "annualized_volatility": 0.648202, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.242656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.592546, "fair_value_reference": 17.573392, "structural_low": 17.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01391, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.029464, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.287793, "worst_return": -0.175684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.202798, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.184075, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.722934, "worst_return": -0.026398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.3264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.318158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.474972, "worst_return": 0.146682, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.52, "volume": 103819526, "typical_volume": 115933219.85, "trend": 27.782879, "fair_value": 17.499061, "relative_strength": -25.904055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.667352, "energy": 83.818853, "activity_lines": [ 19.191349, 20.700914, 23.364733, 25.430167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.15, "volume": 125203639, "typical_volume": 114448425.3, "trend": 27.592546, "fair_value": 17.573392, "relative_strength": -21.870415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.687811, "energy": 76.873279, "activity_lines": [ 19.592, 20.588981, 22.965083, 25.002239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }