{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd28880f-5c7b-489b-b732-a1374cf8c8df", "symbol": "CAF", "name": "Centrepoint Alliance Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.486, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.904, "architecture_energy": 16.449, "architecture_maturity": 36.533, "architecture_confidence": 78.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.5, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 25.4, "deceleration": 64.31, "rotation_down": 49.1, "downward_expansion": 32.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.361, 0.368182, 0.362429, 0.361111 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.362707, "distance_from_trend": -0.062604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.30619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.440672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110355, "excess_performance": -0.174061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.213143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1796810, "relative_activity": 2.414124, "balance": 1.213143, "dry_up": 1.175282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06052, "annualized_volatility": 0.220315, "from_high_reference": -0.296868, "from_low_reference": 0.079365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.362707, "fair_value_reference": 0.30619, "structural_low": 0.315, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.011958, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.177867, "worst_return": -0.094117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039999, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232402, "worst_return": -0.136675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125005, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.148686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183448, "worst_return": -0.088037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.505161, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011763, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049384, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.354522, 0.358951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.375, "volume": 2408901, "typical_volume": 666798.15, "trend": 0.365376, "fair_value": 0.299975, "relative_strength": -0.76816, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.567646, "energy": 50.757482, "activity_lines": [ 0.370667, 0.361818, 0.356297, 0.35965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.395, "volume": 435001, "typical_volume": 668304.2, "trend": 0.367254, "fair_value": 0.301411, "relative_strength": 4.960156, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.808273, "energy": 65.168335, "activity_lines": [ 0.379, 0.369182, 0.359964, 0.361561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.39, "volume": 326848, "typical_volume": 657645.05, "trend": 0.367838, "fair_value": 0.302766, "relative_strength": 3.778226, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.160558, "energy": 65.452171, "activity_lines": [ 0.384, 0.374636, 0.363071, 0.363028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.38, "volume": 399627, "typical_volume": 662796.75, "trend": 0.366959, "fair_value": 0.304081, "relative_strength": 1.527309, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.387365, "energy": 55.19448, "activity_lines": [ 0.384333, 0.377364, 0.365131, 0.363813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 975721, "typical_volume": 676863.25, "trend": 0.364919, "fair_value": 0.305155, "relative_strength": -8.321892, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.170227, "energy": 16.648067, "activity_lines": [ 0.373667, 0.373727, 0.364238, 0.362719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 1796810, "typical_volume": 744290.75, "trend": 0.362707, "fair_value": 0.30619, "relative_strength": -13.440672, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.903698, "energy": 16.448788, "activity_lines": [ 0.361, 0.368182, 0.362429, 0.361111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }