{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd35f00a-ab46-4e0b-81ae-94f74ae950c8", "symbol": "603578", "name": "Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.057, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.112, "architecture_energy": 47.952, "architecture_maturity": 15.314, "architecture_confidence": 78.999, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.45, "rotation_up": 12.78, "upward_expansion": 7.48, "deceleration": 44.79, "rotation_down": 63.22, "downward_expansion": 80.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.604667, 11.921818, 12.72781, 13.081548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.92, "trend_reference": 13.490667, "distance_from_trend": -0.116426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.177756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.505816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292582, "excess_performance": -0.249378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095445, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.884393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16613482, "relative_activity": 0.794193, "balance": 1.884393, "dry_up": 1.036038, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143715, "annualized_volatility": 0.564083, "from_high_reference": -0.332587, "from_low_reference": 0.202825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.490667, "fair_value_reference": 13.177756, "structural_low": 9.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.02197, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.00843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.173275, "worst_return": -0.194915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005512, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013436, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.265683, "worst_return": -0.092796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.070648, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.042118, "worst_return": -0.173224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.280183, "energy": 46.6819, "activity_lines": [ 12.536, 13.256545, 13.461286, 13.62514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.55, "volume": 30681236, "typical_volume": 23545935.55, "trend": 13.561333, "fair_value": 13.23631, "relative_strength": -9.747836, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.575787, "energy": 65.29475, "activity_lines": [ 12.196, 12.862182, 13.259095, 13.494989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 23603783, "typical_volume": 22400212.65, "trend": 13.521, "fair_value": 13.213869, "relative_strength": -14.705551, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.157193, "energy": 65.691618, "activity_lines": [ 11.758667, 12.406, 13.025619, 13.329742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.25, "volume": 15791761, "typical_volume": 21683967.6, "trend": 13.496, "fair_value": 13.19544, "relative_strength": -12.604139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.905079, "energy": 48.598278, "activity_lines": [ 11.542667, 12.068727, 12.837524, 13.183226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.92, "volume": 16613482, "typical_volume": 20918691.4, "trend": 13.490667, "fair_value": 13.177756, "relative_strength": -9.505816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.11224, "energy": 47.952134, "activity_lines": [ 11.604667, 11.921818, 12.72781, 13.081548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }