{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd4108c7-9723-4129-8f45-d4b35c3a6515", "symbol": "HRL-F207", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) ISE Cyber Security", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.91, "architecture_energy": 62.989, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.199, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.96, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 47.0, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.323333, 29.578182, 644.27381, 1063.185376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.27, "trend_reference": 1533.315667, "distance_from_trend": -0.979606, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2199.201731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.587208, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.985215, "excess_performance": -1.014115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.979606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985781, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.016155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.985872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.711337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.985215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.32423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17251, "relative_activity": 0.419383, "balance": 2.32423, "dry_up": 0.834482, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.074537, "annualized_volatility": 6.274922, "from_high_reference": -0.988097, "from_low_reference": 0.209203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1533.315667, "fair_value_reference": 2199.201731, "structural_low": 25.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001114, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.001797, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.061632, "worst_return": -0.078888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030699, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.034224, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.186133, "worst_return": -0.133817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072081, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.063497, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.132335, "worst_return": -0.168818, "sufficient": false }, { 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87.223759, "activity_lines": [ 29.420667, 297.264364, 1037.267333, 1384.158581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.32, "volume": 39760, "typical_volume": 39244.65, "trend": 1688.166, "fair_value": 2223.826795, "relative_strength": -98.735364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.560151, "energy": 67.37501, "activity_lines": [ 29.985333, 165.092364, 895.713714, 1272.124043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.22, "volume": 68819, "typical_volume": 40948.1, "trend": 1610.873333, "fair_value": 2211.591026, "relative_strength": -98.713724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.469033, "energy": 67.000686, "activity_lines": [ 29.900667, 74.914545, 764.563333, 1165.095269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.27, "volume": 17251, "typical_volume": 41134.2, "trend": 1533.315667, "fair_value": 2199.201731, "relative_strength": -98.587208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.909816, "energy": 62.988947, "activity_lines": [ 30.323333, 29.578182, 644.27381, 1063.185376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }