{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd497b95-5347-41d3-96b7-758d6814344f", "symbol": "SEMI", "name": "iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.648, "architecture_energy": 28.335, "architecture_maturity": 74.34, "architecture_confidence": 92.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.56, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 53.82, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.73, "downward_expansion": 19.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.6212, 15.346218, 15.109219, 14.057282 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.772, "trend_reference": 12.660833, "distance_from_trend": 0.166748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.299323, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.023749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.037631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.545512, "excess_performance": 0.494276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.023749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.310376, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.545512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3662792, "relative_activity": 1.046627, "balance": 0.907192, "dry_up": 1.943307, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098648, "annualized_volatility": 0.412671, "from_high_reference": -0.181062, "from_low_reference": 1.447722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.660833, "fair_value_reference": 7.299323, "structural_low": 8.882, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070702, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.053691, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.342481, "worst_return": -0.035758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096128, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065221, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.8414, "worst_return": 0.051847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.120452, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139933, "worst_return": 0.116918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.184002, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101358, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239034, "worst_return": 0.12897, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049532, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.275791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01398, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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65.929622, "activity_lines": [ 16.742, 16.387564, 14.74261, 13.456231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.41, "volume": 15531451, "typical_volume": 3089556.25, "trend": 12.0683, "fair_value": 7.126543, "relative_strength": 36.504313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.341884, "energy": 47.476208, "activity_lines": [ 15.9208, 16.114, 14.859152, 13.620897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.876, "volume": 2574720, "typical_volume": 3138397.55, "trend": 12.290733, "fair_value": 7.184838, "relative_strength": 37.260079, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.63775, "energy": 31.625297, "activity_lines": [ 15.3948, 15.920945, 14.999362, 13.802039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.946, "volume": 5434349, "typical_volume": 3352348.3, "trend": 12.471, "fair_value": 7.238606, "relative_strength": 25.654992, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.441719, "energy": 29.356201, "activity_lines": [ 14.767067, 15.549818, 15.025329, 13.90883 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.772, "volume": 3662792, "typical_volume": 3499615.7, "trend": 12.660833, "fair_value": 7.299323, "relative_strength": 31.037631, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.647641, "energy": 28.334835, "activity_lines": [ 14.6212, 15.346218, 15.109219, 14.057282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }