{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd50d4fa-a8f1-454c-a0f2-b9a7f52ea6c5", "symbol": "105780", "name": "KB RISE Top 5 Group ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.832, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -5.948, "architecture_energy": 26.164, "architecture_maturity": 59.036, "architecture_confidence": 76.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.75, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 42.84, "deceleration": 87.64, "rotation_down": 51.49, "downward_expansion": 39.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 16269.666667, 17733.818182, 18266.727623, 17298.156475 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15760.0, "trend_reference": 15857.294889, "distance_from_trend": -0.006136, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8244.310419, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.911621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.490202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.353278, "excess_performance": 0.123449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006136, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.911621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.601625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.084902, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.353278, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.58517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26849, "relative_activity": 0.29037, "balance": 1.58517, "dry_up": 0.452986, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159166, "annualized_volatility": 0.540905, "from_high_reference": -0.3367, "from_low_reference": 1.42514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15857.294889, "fair_value_reference": 8244.310419, "structural_low": 11357.634766, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017028, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019147, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.283268, "worst_return": -0.042665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028245, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.0181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.658085, "worst_return": -0.092066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.03387, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02904, "worst_return": -0.0387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8182.759437, "relative_strength": 4.450911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.742663, "energy": 22.077112, "activity_lines": [ 16869.333333, 18411.454545, 18418.24402, 17293.256576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15760.0, "volume": 26849, "typical_volume": 92464.8, "trend": 15857.294889, "fair_value": 8244.310419, "relative_strength": 8.490202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.947671, "energy": 26.163573, "activity_lines": [ 16269.666667, 17733.818182, 18266.727623, 17298.156475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }