{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd522d36-b9ca-452f-b082-f23d2781073e", "symbol": "APCD", "name": "Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.822, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.282, "architecture_energy": 37.344, "architecture_maturity": 20.565, "architecture_confidence": 62.966, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.81, "rotation_up": 54.87, "upward_expansion": 77.26, "deceleration": 62.26, "rotation_down": 18.19, "downward_expansion": 3.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 259.513332, 258.052532, 254.318789, 251.595307 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 260.0, "trend_reference": 246.506852, "distance_from_trend": 0.054737, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 241.934694, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07467, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.468361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085577, "excess_performance": -0.088669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054737, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057201, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07467, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085577, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.244898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33, "relative_activity": 3.283582, "balance": 1.244898, "dry_up": 0.820896, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042316, "annualized_volatility": 0.22693, "from_high_reference": -0.053513, "from_low_reference": 0.335431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 246.506852, "fair_value_reference": 241.934694, "structural_low": 229.077754, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.027225, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.035234, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.105139, "worst_return": -0.141506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033646, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.147969, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.106553, "worst_return": -0.183627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129011, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.087871, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.163422, "worst_return": -0.185641, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.922517, "energy": 11.681386, "activity_lines": [ 243.048047, 245.197263, 246.799255, 243.326385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 272.100006, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 6.0, "trend": 237.932074, "fair_value": 241.499586, "relative_strength": -7.760192, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.590127, "energy": 42.288291, "activity_lines": [ 252.945953, 249.593289, 249.334654, 245.636149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 261.600006, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 8.4, "trend": 239.907946, "fair_value": 241.602671, "relative_strength": -9.683458, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.751328, "energy": 59.556515, "activity_lines": [ 256.963344, 251.834769, 250.713887, 247.163113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 262.899994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.4, "trend": 241.864795, "fair_value": 241.682694, "relative_strength": -6.977957, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.975379, "energy": 68.677972, "activity_lines": [ 260.368692, 254.191708, 252.097997, 248.64647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 261.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.4, "trend": 243.820924, "fair_value": 241.731235, "relative_strength": -8.253657, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.030275, "energy": 70.88901, "activity_lines": [ 262.076096, 256.09002, 253.199537, 249.913258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 255.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.4, "trend": 245.307306, "fair_value": 241.824688, "relative_strength": -9.959161, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.695349, "energy": 49.453897, "activity_lines": [ 260.399999, 256.694922, 253.572691, 250.647392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 260.0, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 10.05, "trend": 246.506852, "fair_value": 241.934694, "relative_strength": -10.468361, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.282242, "energy": 37.343525, "activity_lines": [ 259.513332, 258.052532, 254.318789, 251.595307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }