{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd65ff03-ff3a-4d59-b056-f910b28ddcc6", "symbol": "FAR", "name": "Foraco International SA", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.175, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.614, "architecture_energy": 55.725, "architecture_maturity": 4.684, "architecture_confidence": 76.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 14.57, "upward_expansion": 13.63, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 64.31, "downward_expansion": 84.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.542, 2.598, 2.748143, 2.797548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.82, "trend_reference": 2.844333, "distance_from_trend": -0.008555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.339231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.744491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053691, "excess_performance": -0.174113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008555, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.689949, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 437200, "relative_activity": 0.545644, "balance": 2.689949, "dry_up": 0.516783, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103382, "annualized_volatility": 0.598045, "from_high_reference": -0.20339, "from_low_reference": 0.558011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.844333, "fair_value_reference": 2.339231, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.006061, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.007207, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.164634, "worst_return": -0.202454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012686, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.243902, "worst_return": -0.12766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059894, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.037489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.642424, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1678, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.100865, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.540984, "worst_return": -0.204348, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117117, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220779, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.64, "volume": 22400, "typical_volume": 52180.0, "trend": 1.779667, "fair_value": 1.535769, "relative_strength": 0.097988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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2.823333, "fair_value": 2.306667, "relative_strength": -5.105873, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.968451, "energy": 24.573183, "activity_lines": [ 2.793333, 2.912909, 2.921524, 2.899097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.76, "volume": 60100, "typical_volume": 905050.0, "trend": 2.833, "fair_value": 2.313462, "relative_strength": 0.083913, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.638888, "energy": 23.509606, "activity_lines": [ 2.760667, 2.873091, 2.905, 2.895011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.74, "volume": 327300, "typical_volume": 895820.0, "trend": 2.841333, "fair_value": 2.320321, "relative_strength": -1.03612, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.293218, "energy": 32.802431, "activity_lines": [ 2.738, 2.833455, 2.887, 2.889011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.35, "volume": 414700, "typical_volume": 881925.0, "trend": 2.836667, "fair_value": 2.324808, "relative_strength": -15.037987, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.451754, "energy": 61.097885, "activity_lines": [ 2.592667, 2.73, 2.834, 2.857312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.45, "volume": 259300, "typical_volume": 824615.0, "trend": 2.836333, "fair_value": 2.32891, "relative_strength": -11.807575, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.166689, "energy": 69.119491, "activity_lines": [ 2.532, 2.657818, 2.795524, 2.832366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.31, "volume": 545100, "typical_volume": 817035.0, "trend": 2.833333, "fair_value": 2.332051, "relative_strength": -16.639431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.624794, "energy": 76.627011, "activity_lines": [ 2.442667, 2.574364, 2.746286, 2.798409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.82, "volume": 437200, "typical_volume": 801255.0, "trend": 2.844333, "fair_value": 2.339231, "relative_strength": -1.744491, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.613928, "energy": 55.725066, "activity_lines": [ 2.542, 2.598, 2.748143, 2.797548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }