{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd6930b4-2f6f-4122-aa11-c8a991848529", "symbol": "HELG", "name": "SpareBank 1 Helgeland", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.23, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.363, "architecture_energy": 22.752, "architecture_maturity": 32.72, "architecture_confidence": 89.027, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.09, "rotation_up": 22.55, "upward_expansion": 13.52, "deceleration": 43.87, "rotation_down": 38.01, "downward_expansion": 63.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.14, 156.997091, 159.491905, 160.574511 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 158.5, "trend_reference": 161.725269, "distance_from_trend": -0.019943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 139.303214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.6407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02919, "excess_performance": -0.154184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7440, "relative_activity": 0.693244, "balance": 0.558234, "dry_up": 0.602186, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040728, "annualized_volatility": 0.176243, "from_high_reference": -0.113931, "from_low_reference": 0.056667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.725269, "fair_value_reference": 139.303214, "structural_low": 150.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011711, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.015153, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.101563, "worst_return": -0.064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023779, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.025167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14876, "worst_return": -0.057851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152686, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.071882, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.158279, "worst_return": -0.049587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 1261, "typical_volume": 11069.5, "trend": 162.835516, "fair_value": 138.638056, "relative_strength": -14.761566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.618813, "energy": 48.254527, "activity_lines": [ 156.986665, 158.144363, 160.541808, 161.388377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.860001, "volume": 14450, "typical_volume": 11110.45, "trend": 162.1394, "fair_value": 138.963754, "relative_strength": -17.234269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.81154, "energy": 36.565772, "activity_lines": [ 156.218666, 157.111272, 159.778238, 160.809311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.5, "volume": 7440, "typical_volume": 10732.15, "trend": 161.725269, "fair_value": 139.303214, "relative_strength": -14.6407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.362746, "energy": 22.752313, "activity_lines": [ 157.14, 156.997091, 159.491905, 160.574511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }