{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd69cdac-4684-42f5-a4af-616f9a6900da", "symbol": "JPM", "name": "JPMorgan Chase & Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.088, "architecture_energy": 82.574, "architecture_maturity": 21.553, "architecture_confidence": 77.663, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.07, "rotation_up": 81.67, "upward_expansion": 96.69, "deceleration": 40.39, "rotation_down": 10.27, "downward_expansion": 18.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 351.537333, 343.086963, 329.140915, 320.692695 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 357.52, "trend_reference": 312.40563, "distance_from_trend": 0.14441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 239.94726, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.973538, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114563, "excess_performance": -0.011062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.489994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029735, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114563, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.654955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30569607, "relative_activity": 0.703158, "balance": 3.654955, "dry_up": 0.930336, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043845, "annualized_volatility": 0.198934, "from_high_reference": -0.015096, "from_low_reference": 0.287478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 312.40563, "fair_value_reference": 239.94726, "structural_low": 277.690167, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.031248, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": 0.008922, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.111336, "worst_return": -0.115509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.068532, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.033422, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.194631, "worst_return": -0.077013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.14361, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.046003, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.25253, "worst_return": -0.205074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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310.705118, 308.285321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 336.47, "volume": 56164208, "typical_volume": 46705437.9, "trend": 308.582115, "fair_value": 234.700304, "relative_strength": -0.632597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.719075, "energy": 79.954128, "activity_lines": [ 330.93097, 322.43103, 313.707817, 310.129643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 341.1, "volume": 54091396, "typical_volume": 46398324.45, "trend": 309.47881, "fair_value": 235.953003, "relative_strength": 2.330958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.465577, "energy": 79.282376, "activity_lines": [ 335.288324, 327.054149, 317.021707, 312.227571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 353.21, "volume": 40212677, "typical_volume": 45755367.65, "trend": 310.42589, "fair_value": 237.271517, "relative_strength": 6.539573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.16914, "energy": 85.144074, "activity_lines": [ 342.229132, 333.169996, 321.287421, 315.048938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 351.79, "volume": 36910787, "typical_volume": 44918776.5, "trend": 311.405868, "fair_value": 238.586292, "relative_strength": 4.928962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.112532, "energy": 81.210728, "activity_lines": [ 346.734734, 338.020389, 325.107458, 317.71759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 357.52, "volume": 30569607, "typical_volume": 43474735.45, "trend": 312.40563, "fair_value": 239.94726, "relative_strength": 2.973538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.087857, "energy": 82.573732, "activity_lines": [ 351.537333, 343.086963, 329.140915, 320.692695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }