{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd6b37be-e91d-41e9-9edd-fc22abae1c7f", "symbol": "ROOT", "name": "Roots Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.11, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.254, "architecture_energy": 58.125, "architecture_maturity": 8.823, "architecture_confidence": 79.981, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.7, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 27.08, "deceleration": 50.48, "rotation_down": 69.71, "downward_expansion": 54.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.431333, 3.621455, 3.81419, 3.784817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.45, "trend_reference": 3.671333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.800833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.818687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112903, "excess_performance": -0.007518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060875, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231776, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.909583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18400, "relative_activity": 0.344537, "balance": 0.909583, "dry_up": 1.231158, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083724, "annualized_volatility": 0.360459, "from_high_reference": -0.265957, "from_low_reference": 0.227758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.671333, "fair_value_reference": 2.800833, "structural_low": 2.82, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013559, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013115, "worst_return": -0.088136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061017, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291803, "worst_return": -0.128814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.101695, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278689, "worst_return": -0.166102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.144068, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.165135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.288136, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022654, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029221, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016287, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029126, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017699, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.97, "volume": 19000, "typical_volume": 46495.0, "trend": 3.031, "fair_value": 2.909968, "relative_strength": 0.859266, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.030827, 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3.592667, "fair_value": 2.78141, "relative_strength": 5.996061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.756626, "energy": 59.704279, "activity_lines": [ 4.203333, 4.155455, 4.009762, 3.821763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.9, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 60285.0, "trend": 3.607667, "fair_value": 2.786538, "relative_strength": 1.343649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.023238, "energy": 31.538675, "activity_lines": [ 4.080667, 4.121455, 4.018095, 3.841591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.62, "volume": 28300, "typical_volume": 59495.0, "trend": 3.624333, "fair_value": 2.790641, "relative_strength": -5.934057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.510705, "energy": 24.017525, "activity_lines": [ 3.887333, 4.035455, 3.995476, 3.842387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.48, "volume": 152400, "typical_volume": 65970.0, "trend": 3.638, "fair_value": 2.793397, "relative_strength": -9.240374, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.912417, "energy": 32.295543, "activity_lines": [ 3.710667, 3.929636, 3.956905, 3.833075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.36, "volume": 45900, "typical_volume": 59575.0, "trend": 3.649333, "fair_value": 2.795513, "relative_strength": -12.290399, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.774037, "energy": 47.324599, "activity_lines": [ 3.562, 3.809818, 3.905286, 3.81514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.39, "volume": 46300, "typical_volume": 58515.0, "trend": 3.660667, "fair_value": 2.797756, "relative_strength": -10.814183, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.132994, "energy": 56.916827, "activity_lines": [ 3.464667, 3.704909, 3.856714, 3.798409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.45, "volume": 18400, "typical_volume": 53405.0, "trend": 3.671333, "fair_value": 2.800833, "relative_strength": -11.818687, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.25352, "energy": 58.125268, "activity_lines": [ 3.431333, 3.621455, 3.81419, 3.784817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }