{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd6b67cc-bc57-4177-8c35-a576c1780d85", "symbol": "PVP", "name": "PVP Ventures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.409, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.7, "architecture_energy": 32.618, "architecture_maturity": 39.685, "architecture_confidence": 69.694, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.21, "rotation_up": 47.19, "upward_expansion": 69.65, "deceleration": 62.02, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 12.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.908667, 29.456728, 29.426143, 29.144624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.740002, "trend_reference": 29.045333, "distance_from_trend": 0.196061, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.063654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332891, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.250561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172065, "excess_performance": 0.215774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056653, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332891, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075282, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.172506, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22674861, "relative_activity": 2.35596, "balance": 1.105631, "dry_up": 0.711538, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095169, "annualized_volatility": 0.74304, "from_high_reference": -0.118498, "from_low_reference": 0.878854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.045333, "fair_value_reference": 26.063654, "structural_low": 23.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.033228, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.028079, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.373832, "worst_return": -0.278912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.12247, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.475309, "worst_return": -0.064122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.351852, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.27573, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.594339, "worst_return": -0.230424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.296, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.25734, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.78395, "worst_return": -0.291134, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.301653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113336, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"close": 27.309999, "volume": 741752, "typical_volume": 8568327.65, "trend": 29.265666, "fair_value": 25.804936, "relative_strength": -3.29233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.072997, "energy": 34.049579, "activity_lines": [ 28.163333, 28.731454, 29.051286, 28.930623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.77, "volume": 2039601, "typical_volume": 8609887.8, "trend": 28.927333, "fair_value": 25.914038, "relative_strength": -8.033736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.782194, "energy": 44.124527, "activity_lines": [ 27.640666, 28.378182, 28.865667, 28.769613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.740002, "volume": 22674861, "typical_volume": 9624467.2, "trend": 29.045333, "fair_value": 26.063654, "relative_strength": 17.250561, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.699667, "energy": 32.618312, "activity_lines": [ 29.908667, 29.456728, 29.426143, 29.144624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }