{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd6e786b-d83e-42fb-85af-f7e2d3cb4f19", "symbol": "AIRR", "name": "FIRST TRUST RBA AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL RENAISSANCE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.376, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.347, "architecture_energy": 16.926, "architecture_maturity": 15.469, "architecture_confidence": 83.826, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.13, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 41.34, "deceleration": 82.58, "rotation_down": 41.54, "downward_expansion": 35.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.008, 123.186364, 124.756524, 123.062371 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 123.54, "trend_reference": 120.634392, "distance_from_trend": 0.024086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 82.369951, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.499819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.705428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04317, "excess_performance": -0.144283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076737, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.499819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200345, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.438843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3086547, "relative_activity": 0.885543, "balance": 0.438843, "dry_up": 1.054402, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058259, "annualized_volatility": 0.205578, "from_high_reference": -0.085228, "from_low_reference": 0.41061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.634392, "fair_value_reference": 82.369951, "structural_low": 105.305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030338, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011491, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.089963, "worst_return": -0.073911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060731, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.035555, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.215841, "worst_return": -0.121036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079062, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228845, "worst_return": -0.105755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", 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126.804, 127.578182, 125.458567, 122.673923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 121.12, "volume": 4276100, "typical_volume": 3548768.85, "trend": 118.917723, "fair_value": 81.088319, "relative_strength": 0.791, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.626961, "energy": 16.984826, "activity_lines": [ 124.539333, 126.342545, 125.368912, 122.861707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.12, "volume": 2710261, "typical_volume": 3468940.75, "trend": 119.581123, "fair_value": 81.520245, "relative_strength": 2.195544, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.562024, "energy": 14.832496, "activity_lines": [ 122.83, 125.261455, 125.26496, 123.003789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.05, "volume": 4627514, "typical_volume": 3529419.65, "trend": 120.100862, "fair_value": 81.927865, "relative_strength": -1.951594, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.610036, "energy": 20.759149, "activity_lines": [ 120.416, 123.561091, 124.722067, 122.840491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.54, "volume": 3086547, "typical_volume": 3485486.65, "trend": 120.634392, "fair_value": 82.369951, "relative_strength": -1.705428, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.347373, "energy": 16.925911, "activity_lines": [ 121.008, 123.186364, 124.756524, 123.062371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }