{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd747c1c-cca4-4892-ac3f-fb2393ee3bad", "symbol": "VGOV", "name": "Vanguard U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.024, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.625, "architecture_energy": 22.671, "architecture_maturity": 14.5, "architecture_confidence": 80.153, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.61, "rotation_up": 16.22, "upward_expansion": 12.19, "deceleration": 49.57, "rotation_down": 51.88, "downward_expansion": 66.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.489132, 15.535058, 15.532817, 15.556296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.568, "trend_reference": 15.618689, "distance_from_trend": -0.003245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.31664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.975667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012138, "excess_performance": -0.063373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282058, "relative_activity": 0.907061, "balance": 0.523578, "dry_up": 1.177971, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015493, "annualized_volatility": 0.074676, "from_high_reference": -0.038646, "from_low_reference": 0.034471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.618689, "fair_value_reference": 15.31664, "structural_low": 15.108332, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.000613, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007112, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.056616, "worst_return": -0.043333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00337, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016627, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.079647, "worst_return": -0.073331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006741, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.075858, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.064493, "worst_return": -0.144109, "sufficient": true }, { 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15.599732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.511, "volume": 207766, "typical_volume": 321341.6, "trend": 15.652341, "fair_value": 15.299137, "relative_strength": -6.611475, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.805172, "energy": 10.120801, "activity_lines": [ 15.591911, 15.589248, 15.549826, 15.590185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.426, "volume": 317376, "typical_volume": 311483.15, "trend": 15.641834, "fair_value": 15.303844, "relative_strength": -8.030784, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.529761, "energy": 19.601146, "activity_lines": [ 15.530044, 15.565702, 15.538935, 15.575583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.406, "volume": 657999, "typical_volume": 319479.5, "trend": 15.631118, "fair_value": 15.309048, "relative_strength": -8.94866, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.317494, "energy": 28.896979, "activity_lines": [ 15.47204, 15.534413, 15.527786, 15.560368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.568, "volume": 282058, "typical_volume": 310958.3, "trend": 15.618689, "fair_value": 15.31664, "relative_strength": -7.975667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.624718, "energy": 22.67147, "activity_lines": [ 15.489132, 15.535058, 15.532817, 15.556296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }