{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd7576e3-5b2c-46f1-a4cd-374ae5db97ca", "symbol": "IBHK", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS 2031 TERM HIGH YIELD AND INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.197, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.475, "architecture_energy": 12.255, "architecture_maturity": 18.92, "architecture_confidence": 73.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.65, "rotation_up": 23.26, "upward_expansion": 46.41, "deceleration": 82.46, "rotation_down": 32.5, "downward_expansion": 26.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.393227, 25.429996, 25.436381, 25.39433 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.45, "trend_reference": 25.362001, "distance_from_trend": 0.00347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.093952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.910166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 4e-05, "excess_performance": -0.125585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4e-05, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.099643, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94440, "relative_activity": 1.266134, "balance": 1.099643, "dry_up": 0.962193, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008618, "annualized_volatility": 0.045047, "from_high_reference": -0.010439, "from_low_reference": 0.043814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.362001, "fair_value_reference": 24.093952, "structural_low": 24.720817, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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25.427522, 25.38744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.366014, "volume": 74322, "typical_volume": 71642.85, "trend": 25.357707, "fair_value": 24.082161, "relative_strength": -7.338542, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.330527, "energy": 15.279812, "activity_lines": [ 25.377418, 25.431602, 25.428906, 25.388376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.45, "volume": 94440, "typical_volume": 74589.25, "trend": 25.362001, "fair_value": 24.093952, "relative_strength": -9.910166, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.475009, "energy": 12.254954, "activity_lines": [ 25.393227, 25.429996, 25.436381, 25.39433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }