{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd7a074a-f811-4af4-9cfd-3d2893dd3623", "symbol": "DGR-B", "name": "CI U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Index ETF Non-Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.949, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.214, "architecture_energy": 66.412, "architecture_maturity": 86.532, "architecture_confidence": 73.255, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 55.82, "upward_expansion": 84.99, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 28.98, "downward_expansion": 11.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.715333, 64.495311, 63.628578, 62.530871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 65.989998, "trend_reference": 61.315512, "distance_from_trend": 0.076237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.891819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.276648, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096711, "excess_performance": -0.02371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076237, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027967, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096711, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.08, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1700, "relative_activity": 0.19209, "balance": 3.08, "dry_up": 0.734463, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015493, "annualized_volatility": 0.101172, "from_high_reference": -0.006025, "from_low_reference": 0.181783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.315512, "fair_value_reference": 52.891819, "structural_low": 56.380001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.016219, "positive_rate": 0.755556, "directional_follow_through": 0.755556, "median_excess_return": 0.001337, "regime_survival": 0.822222, "best_return": 0.06519, "worst_return": -0.060897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.029972, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": 0.015115, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.100347, "worst_return": -0.071186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066414, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024981, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.144155, "worst_return": -0.080547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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84.714842, "energy": 90.254774, "activity_lines": [ 64.140808, 63.643052, 62.124959, 61.292342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 65.150002, "volume": 20500, "typical_volume": 10355.0, "trend": 60.560245, "fair_value": 52.297494, "relative_strength": -1.410848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.621338, "energy": 92.020348, "activity_lines": [ 64.547502, 64.025819, 62.526129, 61.603367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.77, "volume": 11100, "typical_volume": 9415.0, "trend": 60.748199, "fair_value": 52.440741, "relative_strength": -3.187912, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.978485, "energy": 65.461512, "activity_lines": [ 64.372467, 64.071958, 62.772729, 61.810448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.790001, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 9070.0, "trend": 60.925043, "fair_value": 52.583806, "relative_strength": -3.229467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.821254, "energy": 63.308074, "activity_lines": [ 64.19, 64.080699, 63.003003, 62.006693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.18, "volume": 8100, "typical_volume": 9070.0, "trend": 61.120208, "fair_value": 52.732415, "relative_strength": -2.038301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.043586, "energy": 57.528759, "activity_lines": [ 64.168, 64.134733, 63.244158, 62.216691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.989998, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 8850.0, "trend": 61.315512, "fair_value": 52.891819, "relative_strength": -2.276648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.21405, "energy": 66.411874, "activity_lines": [ 64.715333, 64.495311, 63.628578, 62.530871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }