{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd7fe130-2514-4810-bc65-6f07cba62f0f", "symbol": "XCNA", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China A Screened Swap UCITS ETF 1C USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.507, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.572, "architecture_energy": 25.543, "architecture_maturity": 61.555, "architecture_confidence": 73.517, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.66, "rotation_up": 19.71, "upward_expansion": 54.21, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 44.06, "downward_expansion": 22.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.144666, 19.384527, 19.358709, 19.084428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.296, "trend_reference": 18.698833, "distance_from_trend": 0.031936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.894955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.333531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091156, "excess_performance": -0.079736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295472, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091156, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618055, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5120, "relative_activity": 0.358748, "balance": 0.618055, "dry_up": 0.815259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029472, "annualized_volatility": 0.166388, "from_high_reference": -0.043806, "from_low_reference": 0.306255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.698833, "fair_value_reference": 14.894955, "structural_low": 17.323999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036442, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.076151, "worst_return": -0.015762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075693, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.044545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184684, "worst_return": -0.066592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.133259, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.177485, "worst_return": -0.000281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.132941, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132941, "worst_return": 0.132941, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", 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83.764839, "energy": 74.588047, "activity_lines": [ 19.8444, 19.627218, 19.118681, 18.766389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.889999, "volume": 12228, "typical_volume": 12162.8, "trend": 18.405566, "fair_value": 14.718545, "relative_strength": -2.744156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.725662, "energy": 77.060799, "activity_lines": [ 19.903933, 19.7072, 19.231981, 18.868507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.978001, "volume": 3364, "typical_volume": 12326.3, "trend": 18.501366, "fair_value": 14.760224, "relative_strength": -2.052918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.922197, "energy": 79.347176, "activity_lines": [ 19.976933, 19.786854, 19.342748, 18.969955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.646, "volume": 25034, "typical_volume": 13401.9, "trend": 18.5529, "fair_value": 14.794417, "relative_strength": -7.283987, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.597209, "energy": 33.655482, "activity_lines": [ 19.5538, 19.604473, 19.316229, 18.979286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.236, "volume": 15466, "typical_volume": 14132.7, "trend": 18.617433, "fair_value": 14.829032, "relative_strength": -4.252115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.596082, "energy": 23.144766, "activity_lines": [ 19.3772, 19.541327, 19.342881, 19.023357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.927999, "volume": 921, "typical_volume": 14074.75, "trend": 18.659966, "fair_value": 14.860776, "relative_strength": -6.390667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.525416, "energy": 23.264736, "activity_lines": [ 19.157866, 19.425891, 19.334305, 19.043393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.296, "volume": 5120, "typical_volume": 14271.85, "trend": 18.698833, "fair_value": 14.894955, "relative_strength": -7.333531, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.572283, "energy": 25.543326, "activity_lines": [ 19.144666, 19.384527, 19.358709, 19.084428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }