{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd80cc96-f2ac-4e6a-b7d8-90537241390c", "symbol": "003018", "name": "JinFu Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.701, "architecture_energy": 23.061, "architecture_maturity": 68.531, "architecture_confidence": 72.247, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.85, "rotation_up": 15.01, "upward_expansion": 42.09, "deceleration": 87.69, "rotation_down": 43.83, "downward_expansion": 33.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.320419, 44.099126, 45.813823, 41.700657 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.779999, "trend_reference": 35.014828, "distance_from_trend": 0.13609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.433956, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.961153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 59.233614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.772243, "excess_performance": 1.764844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.458335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.961153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.044765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.592336, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.609626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.772243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.676004, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74833215, "relative_activity": 0.96781, "balance": 1.676004, "dry_up": 0.797748, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.286113, "annualized_volatility": 1.096893, "from_high_reference": -0.412031, "from_low_reference": 3.299095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.014828, "fair_value_reference": 13.433956, "structural_low": 13.966961, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051752, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.017922, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.518825, "worst_return": -0.072277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073483, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.324434, "worst_return": 0.025742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.365735, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.291678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.067213, "worst_return": -0.084853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.474023, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.349673, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.884037, "worst_return": 0.064009, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.262554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040469, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.226693, "energy": 34.049742, "activity_lines": [ 51.343979, 51.841545, 47.445946, 41.19157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.0, "volume": 63514237, "typical_volume": 79087109.1, "trend": 33.600479, "fair_value": 13.075267, "relative_strength": 59.683615, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.98529, "energy": 17.645825, "activity_lines": [ 45.807718, 49.120356, 47.03995, 41.458854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.74, "volume": 55382932, "typical_volume": 78081010.0, "trend": 34.171575, "fair_value": 13.229221, "relative_strength": 36.719869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.518988, "energy": 20.97137, "activity_lines": [ 39.705038, 45.664023, 46.064097, 41.338823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.779999, "volume": 74833215, "typical_volume": 77322231.35, "trend": 35.014828, "fair_value": 13.433956, "relative_strength": 59.233614, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.700553, "energy": 23.06069, "activity_lines": [ 38.320419, 44.099126, 45.813823, 41.700657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }