{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd8146e9-c539-418b-aaf2-8410b7102ad2", "symbol": "688609", "name": "Unionman Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.137, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.926, "architecture_energy": 27.232, "architecture_maturity": 32.791, "architecture_confidence": 51.233, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.16, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 15.81, "deceleration": 60.48, "rotation_down": 58.95, "downward_expansion": 40.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.282, 9.715455, 10.192476, 9.976065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.54, "trend_reference": 9.773333, "distance_from_trend": -0.023874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.184808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.701406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048352, "excess_performance": 0.091555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063311, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.786954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120352598, "relative_activity": 1.481562, "balance": 2.786954, "dry_up": 1.252988, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149895, "annualized_volatility": 0.524861, "from_high_reference": -0.290706, "from_low_reference": 0.235751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.773333, "fair_value_reference": 10.184808, "structural_low": 7.72, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015593, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003395, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.474684, "worst_return": -0.169257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052677, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043415, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.465823, "worst_return": -0.190332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.286685, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.213936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388608, "worst_return": 0.184763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1325, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070159, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048755, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167139, "active": false }, { "regime": 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[ 9.367333, 10.106727, 10.290905, 10.021656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.36, "volume": 88822002, "typical_volume": 76578421.55, "trend": 9.795667, "fair_value": 10.18109, "relative_strength": -3.266567, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.834788, "energy": 27.410885, "activity_lines": [ 9.254, 9.864727, 10.235, 9.992559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.54, "volume": 120352598, "typical_volume": 81233601.7, "trend": 9.773333, "fair_value": 10.184808, "relative_strength": -3.701406, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.925844, "energy": 27.23236, "activity_lines": [ 9.282, 9.715455, 10.192476, 9.976065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }