{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd81af8f-8cfe-4867-8404-9cca76206d8e", "symbol": "SZK", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.619, "architecture_energy": 17.314, "architecture_maturity": 33.931, "architecture_confidence": 62.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.12, "rotation_up": 26.23, "upward_expansion": 7.9, "deceleration": 54.58, "rotation_down": 44.74, "downward_expansion": 47.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.129333, 21.224108, 21.463625, 21.530806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.0106, "trend_reference": 21.530355, "distance_from_trend": -0.024141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.421818, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.423109, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053929, "excess_performance": -0.071696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139679, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1775, "relative_activity": 0.093308, "balance": 0.417189, "dry_up": 0.813266, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064025, "annualized_volatility": 0.267855, "from_high_reference": -0.229547, "from_low_reference": 0.151302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.530355, "fair_value_reference": 24.421818, "structural_low": 18.249418, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.013813, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.013736, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.304562, "worst_return": -0.077945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.009369, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051669, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.241004, "worst_return": -0.234183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034817, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028966, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148556, "worst_return": -0.05452, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 21.380312, 21.523308, 21.738765, 21.720871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.9359, "volume": 18821, "typical_volume": 28361.95, "trend": 21.9109, "fair_value": 24.50047, "relative_strength": -16.70482, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.491911, "energy": 36.395404, "activity_lines": [ 21.230755, 21.405912, 21.660791, 21.649211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.5245, "volume": 18245, "typical_volume": 26021.75, "trend": 21.791952, "fair_value": 24.480935, "relative_strength": -13.49847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.349956, "energy": 24.24184, "activity_lines": [ 21.281093, 21.408376, 21.62993, 21.624282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.9751, "volume": 23042, "typical_volume": 20125.0, "trend": 21.64263, "fair_value": 24.451159, "relative_strength": -16.11591, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.758573, "energy": 25.27122, "activity_lines": [ 21.19312, 21.309315, 21.54402, 21.571582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0106, "volume": 1775, "typical_volume": 19023.0, "trend": 21.530355, "fair_value": 24.421818, "relative_strength": -18.423109, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.618741, "energy": 17.313971, "activity_lines": [ 21.129333, 21.224108, 21.463625, 21.530806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }