{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd84a242-7aa7-4619-9a9b-d4fd723c5259", "symbol": "603899", "name": "Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.492, "architecture_energy": 20.468, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.383, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.96, "rotation_up": 34.36, "upward_expansion": 20.66, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 19.15, "downward_expansion": 52.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.543333, 22.132727, 22.379984, 22.931539 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.48, "trend_reference": 23.831856, "distance_from_trend": -0.056725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.615927, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.947679, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150539, "excess_performance": -0.107335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091149, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17832280, "relative_activity": 1.03853, "balance": 0.853527, "dry_up": 1.222555, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058321, "annualized_volatility": 0.204914, "from_high_reference": -0.279844, "from_low_reference": 0.098729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.831856, "fair_value_reference": 28.615927, "structural_low": 20.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.004701, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019711, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.356185, "worst_return": -0.12627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.025431, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.034961, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.069637, "worst_return": -0.157776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105156, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.123856, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.185307, "worst_return": -0.224079, 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-10.073104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.091067, "energy": 35.00617, "activity_lines": [ 21.81, 21.786545, 22.379272, 23.067504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.4, "volume": 23854326, "typical_volume": 17050923.7, "trend": 23.944892, "fair_value": 28.720807, "relative_strength": -5.452706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.691912, "energy": 17.534519, "activity_lines": [ 22.420667, 22.051636, 22.419944, 23.026048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.48, "volume": 17832280, "typical_volume": 17170687.55, "trend": 23.831856, "fair_value": 28.615927, "relative_strength": -10.947679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.491982, "energy": 20.468144, "activity_lines": [ 22.543333, 22.132727, 22.379984, 22.931539 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }