{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd856c2e-f352-4777-a9a4-9308b13b6118", "symbol": "FTCE", "name": "FIRST TRUST NEW CONSTRUCTS CORE EARNINGS LEADERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.455, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.649, "architecture_energy": 41.754, "architecture_maturity": 47.249, "architecture_confidence": 71.008, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.45, "rotation_up": 44.92, "upward_expansion": 70.28, "deceleration": 86.47, "rotation_down": 28.4, "downward_expansion": 14.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.213773, 27.154763, 26.905959, 26.368801 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.75, "trend_reference": 25.807897, "distance_from_trend": 0.075252, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.938643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209749, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.425132, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.102968, "excess_performance": -0.022657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075252, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031747, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008354, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.156973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25614, "relative_activity": 0.504951, "balance": 1.156973, "dry_up": 0.575675, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027935, "annualized_volatility": 0.156705, "from_high_reference": -0.025831, "from_low_reference": 0.247752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.807897, "fair_value_reference": 22.938643, "structural_low": 23.0299, "invalidation": "A 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"directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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26.283613, 25.865697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.545, "volume": 34078, "typical_volume": 63932.75, "trend": 25.545445, "fair_value": 22.761243, "relative_strength": 0.29072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.672127, "energy": 49.047957, "activity_lines": [ 27.229452, 27.219751, 26.467289, 26.000497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.7033, "volume": 41093, "typical_volume": 63409.3, "trend": 25.607555, "fair_value": 22.80318, "relative_strength": -1.237124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.124207, "energy": 37.335466, "activity_lines": [ 27.072371, 27.151914, 26.558113, 26.075197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.6926, "volume": 29798, "typical_volume": 63685.65, "trend": 25.65966, "fair_value": 22.844121, "relative_strength": -0.714095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.416051, "energy": 34.216575, "activity_lines": [ 26.946747, 27.07037, 26.639067, 26.1452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.1068, "volume": 20301, "typical_volume": 62546.6, "trend": 25.731327, "fair_value": 22.888524, "relative_strength": -0.304453, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.152909, "energy": 32.691274, "activity_lines": [ 26.982953, 27.053564, 26.749221, 26.238564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.75, "volume": 25614, "typical_volume": 50725.7, "trend": 25.807897, "fair_value": 22.938643, "relative_strength": -1.425132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.649325, "energy": 41.754071, "activity_lines": [ 27.213773, 27.154763, 26.905959, 26.368801 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }