{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "fd8b4410-cf94-42e5-ba95-0b534d1c15cb",
    "symbol": "JANH",
    "name": "Innovator Premium Income 20 Barrier ETF - January",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
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  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "model_version": "ta-0.1.0",
    "as_of_week": "2026-07-31",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "history_weeks": 135,
    "chart_window_weeks": 156,
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "stage_color": "amber",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "stage_age_weeks": 56,
    "hard_stage_exit": false,
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "transition_score": 41.042,
    "is_transition_watch": false,
    "confidence": 71.85,
    "composite_score": 76.222,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_color": "green",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.583,
    "architecture_energy": 92.104,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.943,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.126,
    "architecture_age_weeks": 14,
    "is_reacceleration_watch": false,
    "architecture": {
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      "label": "Upward Expansion",
      "color": "green",
      "modifier": "Established expansion",
      "gate": "up",
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      "maturity": 29.943,
      "confidence": 81.126,
      "confirmation": 42.88,
      "age_weeks": 14,
      "candidate": null,
      "candidate_weeks": 0,
      "hard_reversal": false,
      "reacceleration_watch": false,
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.06,
        "rotation_up": 75.13,
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        "deceleration": 39.03,
        "rotation_down": 19.39,
        "downward_expansion": 21.89
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        "30": 24.571769
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      "activity_slopes": {
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        "20": 1.451213,
        "30": 1.136307
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      "bearish_order": 0.0,
      "fan_width_atr": 2.686802,
      "fan_width_change_4": 1.170159,
      "fan_width_percentile": 0.663462,
      "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.841703,
      "fast_slow_gap_change_4": -0.015828,
      "price_acceptance": 1.0,
      "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.644053,
      "accepted_above": 1.0,
      "accepted_below": 0.0,
      "crossing_density": 0.0
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    "interpretation": {
      "headline": "The advance is losing directional efficiency near the upper range.",
      "body": "Stage 3 is a distribution diagnosis only when a flatter trend, weakening relative strength and supply evidence cluster. It can resolve back upward or break into Stage 4.",
      "phase": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
      "transition": "Stage 3 range intact",
      "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 41/100."
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    "range_position_52": 1.0,
    "returns": {
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      "26": 0.023836,
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      {
        "label": "13-week Fair Value gap",
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        "architecture_energy": 72.977762,
        "activity_5": 24.707426,
        "activity_10": 24.661943,
        "activity_20": 24.543483,
        "activity_30": 24.459794
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-10",
        "open": 24.78,
        "high": 24.83,
        "low": 24.76,
        "close": 24.83,
        "volume": 13427,
        "sma_30": 24.391357,
        "fair_value_history": 23.120428,
        "mansfield_rs": -7.766367,
        "stage": 3,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 78.226943,
        "architecture_energy": 84.768825,
        "activity_5": 24.75702,
        "activity_10": 24.701559,
        "activity_20": 24.58261,
        "activity_30": 24.489393
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-17",
        "open": 24.81,
        "high": 24.86,
        "low": 24.76,
        "close": 24.8037,
        "volume": 15888,
        "sma_30": 24.409978,
        "fair_value_history": 23.133084,
        "mansfield_rs": -6.181879,
        "stage": 3,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 71.881912,
        "architecture_energy": 85.104164,
        "activity_5": 24.782019,
        "activity_10": 24.728867,
        "activity_20": 24.616881,
        "activity_30": 24.515996
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-24",
        "open": 24.81,
        "high": 24.84,
        "low": 24.7843,
        "close": 24.8027,
        "volume": 4427,
        "sma_30": 24.428243,
        "fair_value_history": 23.145544,
        "mansfield_rs": -5.425637,
        "stage": 3,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 68.967017,
        "architecture_energy": 83.534231,
        "activity_5": 24.796266,
        "activity_10": 24.750557,
        "activity_20": 24.648735,
        "activity_30": 24.541333
      },
      {
        "week": "2026-07-31",
        "open": 24.87,
        "high": 24.9,
        "low": 24.79,
        "close": 24.9,
        "volume": 5318,
        "sma_30": 24.451299,
        "fair_value_history": 23.15854,
        "mansfield_rs": -5.823407,
        "stage": 3,
        "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
        "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
        "architecture_gate": "up",
        "architecture_direction": 83.583285,
        "architecture_energy": 92.103881,
        "activity_5": 24.836533,
        "activity_10": 24.784697,
        "activity_20": 24.686489,
        "activity_30": 24.571769
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV",
      "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier",
      "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor",
      "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one",
      "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.",
      "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.",
      "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.",
      "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability"
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.004041,
        "positive_rate": 0.846154,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.846154,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010766,
        "stage_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.035963,
        "worst_return": -0.019886,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.014598,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042747,
        "stage_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.016656,
        "worst_return": 0.005721,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.025946,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080463,
        "stage_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.030744,
        "worst_return": 0.021147,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.052542,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.171432,
        "stage_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.052542,
        "worst_return": 0.052542,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "stage_ledger": [
      {
        "stage": 3,
        "name": "Distribution",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "weeks": 56,
        "return": 0.055509,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "architecture_outcomes": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.003828,
        "positive_rate": 0.916667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.916667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009747,
        "regime_survival": 0.916667,
        "best_return": 0.010686,
        "worst_return": -0.019886,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.015257,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026402,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.019821,
        "worst_return": 0.005721,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.025946,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080463,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.030744,
        "worst_return": 0.021147,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.052542,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.171432,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.052542,
        "worst_return": 0.052542,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "architecture_ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "weeks": 35,
        "return": 0.021404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": -0.00626,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "weeks": 3,
        "return": 0.033403,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "weeks": 2,
        "return": 0.000405,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "weeks": 14,
        "return": 0.019821,
        "active": true
      }
    ]
  }
}