{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd9706d7-6712-431e-94f4-671fd786c0a7", "symbol": "STP", "name": "Step One Clothing Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.858, "architecture_energy": 51.498, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.565, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.31, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 21.02, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 45.43, "downward_expansion": 71.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.148, 0.147091, 0.160655, 0.178242 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.15, "trend_reference": 0.211417, "distance_from_trend": -0.290501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.813158, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.815534, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.537989, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.53125, "excess_performance": -0.594956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.290501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27369, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.815534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.55538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.53125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181793, "relative_activity": 0.447304, "balance": 0.455703, "dry_up": 0.855412, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107692, "annualized_volatility": 0.454331, "from_high_reference": -0.783812, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.211417, "fair_value_reference": 0.813158, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.089179, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.1203, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.320769, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.325401, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.136279, "worst_return": -0.385714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.465594, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.496145, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.434949, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087591, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.870586, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.309588, "volume": 245538, "typical_volume": 375860.15, "trend": 0.256836, "fair_value": 0.526265, "relative_strength": 27.531732, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.147268, "energy": 52.297485, "activity_lines": [ 0.29601, 0.290331, 0.276243, 0.266742 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.403279, "volume": 3005716, "typical_volume": 512647.9, "trend": 0.262131, "fair_value": 0.52497, 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"typical_volume": 521697.9, "trend": 0.224083, "fair_value": 0.814937, "relative_strength": -58.788123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.17882, "energy": 66.781732, "activity_lines": [ 0.142, 0.147364, 0.165798, 0.187091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.155, "volume": 421451, "typical_volume": 483802.65, "trend": 0.218083, "fair_value": 0.814076, "relative_strength": -54.021611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.260326, "energy": 61.886924, "activity_lines": [ 0.146333, 0.147273, 0.163333, 0.182634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.15, "volume": 181793, "typical_volume": 406419.7, "trend": 0.211417, "fair_value": 0.813158, "relative_strength": -55.537989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.858479, "energy": 51.49778, "activity_lines": [ 0.148, 0.147091, 0.160655, 0.178242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }