{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd9a5013-f589-4233-93ae-611cf56f1aa5", "symbol": "SRAD", "name": "Stelrad Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.921, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.515, "architecture_energy": 47.798, "architecture_maturity": 32.482, "architecture_confidence": 62.892, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.37, "rotation_up": 53.18, "upward_expansion": 77.95, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 21.41, "downward_expansion": 6.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.066667, 155.036364, 148.257199, 143.794215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 155.0, "trend_reference": 139.893155, "distance_from_trend": 0.107988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 136.300281, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.236908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.091961, "excess_performance": 0.040726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164617, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149786, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.50265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100368, "relative_activity": 0.214457, "balance": 1.50265, "dry_up": 0.743301, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062144, "annualized_volatility": 0.270758, "from_high_reference": -0.10886, "from_low_reference": 0.338095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 139.893155, "fair_value_reference": 136.300281, "structural_low": 115.836324, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025788, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.04465, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.079137, "worst_return": -0.118577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041269, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005334, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.072153, "worst_return": -0.009146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039772, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083397, "worst_return": -0.115692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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141.041717, 138.984858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 162.0, "volume": 141229, "typical_volume": 419148.4, "trend": 138.337873, "fair_value": 135.661492, "relative_strength": 2.342843, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.174854, "energy": 71.069687, "activity_lines": [ 155.666667, 151.7, 143.481663, 140.535226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 160.0, "volume": 855652, "typical_volume": 459175.2, "trend": 138.839694, "fair_value": 135.864873, "relative_strength": 0.346116, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.289676, "energy": 66.513369, "activity_lines": [ 157.466667, 154.054545, 145.607078, 141.932782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 152.0, "volume": 294238, "typical_volume": 470063.0, "trend": 139.308094, "fair_value": 136.029769, "relative_strength": -5.238575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.061377, "energy": 51.471277, "activity_lines": [ 156.266667, 154.418182, 146.841779, 142.781834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.0, "volume": 100368, "typical_volume": 468009.5, "trend": 139.893155, "fair_value": 136.300281, "relative_strength": -3.236908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.51509, "energy": 47.798412, "activity_lines": [ 156.066667, 155.036364, 148.257199, 143.794215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }