{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fd9b61c5-6622-494a-be76-31632045fb82", "symbol": "PGZ", "name": "Principal Real Estate Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.557, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.748, "architecture_energy": 54.908, "architecture_maturity": 13.356, "architecture_confidence": 75.617, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.28, "rotation_up": 65.0, "upward_expansion": 85.88, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 14.83, "downward_expansion": 10.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.247737, 10.174747, 10.029112, 9.944661 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.27, "trend_reference": 9.856498, "distance_from_trend": 0.041952, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.622657, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191048, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.604507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047741, "excess_performance": -0.077884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041952, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047741, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.821216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47858, "relative_activity": 0.428447, "balance": 1.821216, "dry_up": 0.755673, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030859, "annualized_volatility": 0.15406, "from_high_reference": -0.016284, "from_low_reference": 0.136743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.856498, "fair_value_reference": 8.622657, "structural_low": 9.034587, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002788, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00408, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.062543, "worst_return": -0.051001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01469, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.025507, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.137506, "worst_return": -0.030609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03032, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.017247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154216, "worst_return": -0.07604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.998755, "energy": 66.738622, "activity_lines": [ 10.164183, 10.026014, 9.912948, 9.858985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.25, "volume": 92338, "typical_volume": 117833.15, "trend": 9.805256, "fair_value": 8.576763, "relative_strength": -1.79346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.370118, "energy": 67.034084, "activity_lines": [ 10.221166, 10.087485, 9.954524, 9.889681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.22, "volume": 100572, "typical_volume": 115027.95, "trend": 9.832551, "fair_value": 8.59986, "relative_strength": -2.965314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.474152, "energy": 60.622917, "activity_lines": [ 10.233522, 10.131672, 9.991031, 9.916438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.27, "volume": 47858, "typical_volume": 111701.1, "trend": 9.856498, "fair_value": 8.622657, "relative_strength": -5.604507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.747675, "energy": 54.908376, "activity_lines": [ 10.247737, 10.174747, 10.029112, 9.944661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }