{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fda201e3-fd83-4197-8350-95d678531b00", "symbol": "CARRARO", "name": "CARRARO INDIA LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.719, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.179, "architecture_energy": 19.377, "architecture_maturity": 14.423, "architecture_confidence": 56.267, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.45, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 30.41, "deceleration": 52.01, "rotation_down": 53.26, "downward_expansion": 30.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 530.810002, 541.312729, 546.863097, 539.181292 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 502.049988, "trend_reference": 531.43, "distance_from_trend": -0.055285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 479.321259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.993899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082427, "excess_performance": -0.038718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082427, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1288903, "relative_activity": 1.34377, "balance": 0.42692, "dry_up": 0.64778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083312, "annualized_volatility": 0.422126, "from_high_reference": -0.247922, "from_low_reference": 0.252791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 531.43, "fair_value_reference": 479.321259, "structural_low": 416.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.117973, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132999, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.117973, "worst_return": -0.117973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.556879, "energy": 28.579954, "activity_lines": [ 559.156669, 555.016366, 546.780955, 538.591184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 567.549988, "volume": 421717, "typical_volume": 909657.05, "trend": 533.156668, "fair_value": 477.660935, "relative_strength": 12.781513, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.216309, "energy": 39.904708, "activity_lines": [ 563.71333, 556.746363, 550.241429, 540.895915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 534.0, "volume": 336669, "typical_volume": 912095.85, "trend": 533.268334, "fair_value": 478.347997, "relative_strength": 8.330929, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.58867, "energy": 22.222582, "activity_lines": [ 554.309998, 552.600909, 550.285477, 540.950323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 536.400024, "volume": 438032, "typical_volume": 918345.15, "trend": 532.601667, "fair_value": 479.047419, "relative_strength": 5.820339, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.534267, "energy": 10.00899, "activity_lines": [ 547.476672, 549.547277, 550.416193, 541.152368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 502.049988, "volume": 1288903, "typical_volume": 959169.2, "trend": 531.43, "fair_value": 479.321259, "relative_strength": -1.993899, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.179122, "energy": 19.377428, "activity_lines": [ 530.810002, 541.312729, 546.863097, 539.181292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }