{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fda7aa41-7885-4480-9dca-686ec6686105", "symbol": "USB", "name": "U.S. Bancorp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.726, "architecture_energy": 73.711, "architecture_maturity": 26.243, "architecture_confidence": 84.228, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 74.12, "upward_expansion": 91.25, "deceleration": 47.15, "rotation_down": 13.37, "downward_expansion": 15.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.489333, 62.362181, 59.677797, 58.126963 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.94, "trend_reference": 56.682351, "distance_from_trend": 0.128041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.196473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446722, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.456031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064084, "excess_performance": -0.061541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128041, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07456, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064084, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.913991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35863081, "relative_activity": 0.83283, "balance": 2.913991, "dry_up": 0.976422, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041371, "annualized_volatility": 0.231336, "from_high_reference": -0.01661, "from_low_reference": 0.486473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.682351, "fair_value_reference": 44.196473, "structural_low": 49.821877, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 6.1e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042335, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.11523, "worst_return": -0.165914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.058744, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010285, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.141985, "worst_return": -0.393749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013167, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.098724, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.152476, "worst_return": -0.166729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.899339, 60.953205, 58.389064, 57.189918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.01, "volume": 39124992, "typical_volume": 44298245.9, "trend": 56.373133, "fair_value": 44.010147, "relative_strength": 9.986018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.93521, "energy": 82.081098, "activity_lines": [ 63.126667, 61.651766, 59.018942, 57.638778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.94, "volume": 35863081, "typical_volume": 43061688.7, "trend": 56.682351, "fair_value": 44.196473, "relative_strength": 7.456031, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.725903, "energy": 73.710803, "activity_lines": [ 63.489333, 62.362181, 59.677797, 58.126963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }