{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fda94855-e916-4aaa-aa51-689e303c2918", "symbol": "ORA", "name": "Orange S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.58, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.793, "architecture_energy": 22.984, "architecture_maturity": 16.236, "architecture_confidence": 72.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.11, "rotation_up": 27.02, "upward_expansion": 14.5, "deceleration": 60.45, "rotation_down": 43.01, "downward_expansion": 42.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.389, 16.446902, 16.801123, 16.9465 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.455, "trend_reference": 16.92304, "distance_from_trend": -0.027657, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.874095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.254894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003331, "excess_performance": -0.056643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056684, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.965718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21922358, "relative_activity": 1.280793, "balance": 0.965718, "dry_up": 1.282286, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046184, "annualized_volatility": 0.213837, "from_high_reference": -0.102556, "from_low_reference": 0.285779 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.92304, "fair_value_reference": 11.874095, "structural_low": 15.625, "invalidation": "A decisive 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"typical_volume": 17992779.45, "trend": 16.703206, "fair_value": 11.727986, "relative_strength": 3.833266, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.831481, "energy": 55.128509, "activity_lines": [ 16.295333, 16.702374, 17.007306, 17.020003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.16, "volume": 16179881, "typical_volume": 17650677.05, "trend": 16.773373, "fair_value": 11.774416, "relative_strength": 1.230032, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.522584, "energy": 61.893502, "activity_lines": [ 16.198, 16.547881, 16.910515, 16.984957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.57, "volume": 26443321, "typical_volume": 17855497.95, "trend": 16.847706, "fair_value": 11.825092, "relative_strength": 1.964521, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.823174, "energy": 42.948764, "activity_lines": [ 16.299, 16.497115, 16.859033, 16.971836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.455, "volume": 21922358, "typical_volume": 17116243.5, "trend": 16.92304, "fair_value": 11.874095, "relative_strength": -1.254894, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.793056, "energy": 22.984337, "activity_lines": [ 16.389, 16.446902, 16.801123, 16.9465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }