{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fda9d962-bb45-4531-98bd-f1a163ef8e5d", "symbol": "83111", "name": "E FUND MANAGEMENT(HK) CO LIMITED - MSCI CHINA A50 CONNECT ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.29, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.331, "architecture_energy": 15.119, "architecture_maturity": 50.077, "architecture_confidence": 89.217, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.01, "rotation_up": 29.37, "upward_expansion": 49.99, "deceleration": 81.98, "rotation_down": 26.42, "downward_expansion": 25.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.8312, 2.834945, 2.837238, 2.801402 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.866, "trend_reference": 2.756267, "distance_from_trend": 0.039812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.200808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.34938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088079, "excess_performance": 0.12166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039812, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063494, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.939166, "dry_up": 1.760911, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029417, "annualized_volatility": 0.143097, "from_high_reference": -0.034367, "from_low_reference": 0.281753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.756267, "fair_value_reference": 2.200808, "structural_low": 2.526, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010083, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.015478, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.056324, "worst_return": -0.052905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00656, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011814, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.083778, "worst_return": -0.067511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071536, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001075, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.094937, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.094937, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.210244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094937, "worst_return": 0.094937, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046406, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042182, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.944, "volume": 521000, "typical_volume": 631270.0, "trend": 2.028733, "fair_value": 2.126614, "relative_strength": 2.19842, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.93168, "energy": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.681589, "energy": 22.156267, "activity_lines": [ 2.8112, 2.837782, 2.820914, 2.782942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.858, "volume": 677500, "typical_volume": 387135.0, "trend": 2.7494, "fair_value": 2.190526, "relative_strength": 9.866779, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.291496, "energy": 24.053192, "activity_lines": [ 2.817867, 2.839091, 2.828695, 2.790288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.808, "volume": 102000, "typical_volume": 379095.0, "trend": 2.752333, "fair_value": 2.195282, "relative_strength": 3.740073, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.308436, "energy": 17.957811, "activity_lines": [ 2.813733, 2.831636, 2.83061, 2.794069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.866, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 357315.0, "trend": 2.756267, "fair_value": 2.200808, "relative_strength": 6.34938, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.330905, "energy": 15.118659, "activity_lines": [ 2.8312, 2.834945, 2.837238, 2.801402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }