{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdae31e4-e754-4dab-94fb-05132fc65124", "symbol": "M2R", "name": "Miramar Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.533, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.219, "architecture_energy": 42.243, "architecture_maturity": 30.783, "architecture_confidence": 91.425, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.37, "rotation_up": 22.51, "upward_expansion": 15.46, "deceleration": 33.04, "rotation_down": 50.13, "downward_expansion": 77.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002467, 0.002591, 0.002683, 0.002819 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.003067, "distance_from_trend": -0.184783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.009808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.745107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.7391, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.230372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021277, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.745107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066818, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.277023, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45792134, "relative_activity": 3.521913, "balance": 1.277023, "dry_up": 1.527322, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 1.147618, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003067, "fair_value_reference": 0.009808, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.006175, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029778, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.239584, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.22521, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.565217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.454545, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.507061, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.541667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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14240714.3, "trend": 0.003117, "fair_value": 0.010452, "relative_strength": -19.261951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.159444, "energy": 18.812579, "activity_lines": [ 0.0028, 0.002764, 0.002788, 0.002929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 6532105, "typical_volume": 11988908.55, "trend": 0.003083, "fair_value": 0.010145, "relative_strength": -36.048306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.720447, "energy": 39.671164, "activity_lines": [ 0.002533, 0.002627, 0.00271, 0.002857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 45792134, "typical_volume": 13002063.35, "trend": 0.003067, "fair_value": 0.009808, "relative_strength": -21.7391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.218889, "energy": 42.242908, "activity_lines": [ 0.002467, 0.002591, 0.002683, 0.002819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }