{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdb1bc6f-c414-428e-900e-d9a54c6276ea", "symbol": "RIUS", "name": "L&G US ESG Paris Aligned UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.078, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.347, "architecture_energy": 49.7, "architecture_maturity": 61.436, "architecture_confidence": 67.832, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.0, "rotation_up": 48.26, "upward_expansion": 77.74, "deceleration": 69.58, "rotation_down": 27.37, "downward_expansion": 6.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.212667, 27.103136, 26.889535, 26.35015 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.01, "trend_reference": 25.7575, "distance_from_trend": 0.08745, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.010333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.818139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127276, "excess_performance": 0.076041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08745, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028181, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127276, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 42.291433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11571, "relative_activity": 0.05684, "balance": 42.291433, "dry_up": 0.08175, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024912, "annualized_volatility": 0.156041, "from_high_reference": -0.00267, "from_low_reference": 0.243231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.7575, "fair_value_reference": 21.010333, "structural_low": 22.530001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.018201, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.009028, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.066636, "worst_return": -0.103034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032408, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000864, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.134576, "worst_return": -0.072362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067892, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024201, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.178932, "worst_return": -0.179196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.521342, "energy": 53.116298, "activity_lines": [ 27.051666, 27.048318, 26.438976, 25.957505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.945, "volume": 25075, "typical_volume": 209255.05, "trend": 25.549833, "fair_value": 20.787346, "relative_strength": 1.720781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.734596, "energy": 44.54151, "activity_lines": [ 27.034166, 27.035045, 26.554523, 26.052107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.790001, "volume": 25444, "typical_volume": 206990.0, "trend": 25.605583, "fair_value": 20.857538, "relative_strength": -0.128252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.602428, "energy": 41.39227, "activity_lines": [ 26.959, 26.989318, 26.644928, 26.132118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.639999, "volume": 4478, "typical_volume": 205044.8, "trend": 25.664916, "fair_value": 20.928525, "relative_strength": -1.879759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.333494, "energy": 32.920061, "activity_lines": [ 26.861333, 26.917954, 26.708869, 26.198855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.01, "volume": 11571, "typical_volume": 203572.55, "trend": 25.7575, "fair_value": 21.010333, "relative_strength": 2.818139, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.347335, "energy": 49.699679, "activity_lines": [ 27.212667, 27.103136, 26.889535, 26.35015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }