{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdb803e2-e3c8-45f4-8387-0435f0e3cd6a", "symbol": "CR9", "name": "Corella Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.701, "architecture_energy": 83.824, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.99, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.7, "rotation_up": 9.95, "upward_expansion": 20.33, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 80.51, "downward_expansion": 98.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.007267, 0.008164, 0.009831, 0.010525 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.010767, "distance_from_trend": -0.349845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.011351, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.372592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.222222, "excess_performance": -0.266702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.349845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.224604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.202799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3779795, "relative_activity": 0.265265, "balance": 0.202799, "dry_up": 0.314244, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241758, "annualized_volatility": 0.865626, "from_high_reference": -0.631579, "from_low_reference": 1.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010767, "fair_value_reference": 0.011351, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.032199, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.245798, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.279479, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.24359, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.29911, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.769231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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0.010667, "fair_value": 0.011864, "relative_strength": 13.652799, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.395839, "energy": 40.938997, "activity_lines": [ 0.0096, 0.010245, 0.011564, 0.011432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.008, "volume": 262875, "typical_volume": 14507807.75, "trend": 0.0108, "fair_value": 0.011755, "relative_strength": -0.310352, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.94494, "energy": 47.59688, "activity_lines": [ 0.009, 0.009727, 0.01119, 0.01126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 6922102, "typical_volume": 14610055.3, "trend": 0.0108, "fair_value": 0.011634, "relative_strength": -13.566731, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.432061, "energy": 61.889802, "activity_lines": [ 0.0082, 0.009118, 0.010726, 0.011015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 6946052, "typical_volume": 14513201.5, "trend": 0.0108, "fair_value": 0.011493, "relative_strength": -16.291887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.726172, "energy": 73.542764, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.0086, 0.010271, 0.01077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3779795, "typical_volume": 14249132.6, "trend": 0.010767, "fair_value": 0.011351, "relative_strength": -19.372592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.700506, "energy": 83.824027, "activity_lines": [ 0.007267, 0.008164, 0.009831, 0.010525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }