{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdb9c1a2-58d5-423b-a563-ef678f809ac3", "symbol": "XAUS", "name": "Xtrackers S&P ASX 200 UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.232, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.646, "architecture_energy": 67.696, "architecture_maturity": 6.623, "architecture_confidence": 72.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.74, "rotation_up": 68.08, "upward_expansion": 84.55, "deceleration": 47.97, "rotation_down": 18.49, "downward_expansion": 20.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3880.0, 3843.036364, 3825.964286, 3812.51282 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4013.0, "trend_reference": 3793.750073, "distance_from_trend": 0.057792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3450.372995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163063, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.744148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080215, "excess_performance": 0.02898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057792, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025733, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03943, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017441, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000808, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.52008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3011, "relative_activity": 0.514424, "balance": 1.52008, "dry_up": 0.527964, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020558, "annualized_volatility": 0.166817, "from_high_reference": -0.458593, "from_low_reference": 0.175463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3793.750073, "fair_value_reference": 3450.372995, "structural_low": 3559.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.002853, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.012787, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.074815, "worst_return": -0.076269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001069, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020973, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.052848, "worst_return": -0.168431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003055, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.055455, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.054325, "worst_return": -0.140903, "sufficient": true }, 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3784.366667, 3794.945455, 3796.447619, 3789.535674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3816.0, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 6281.25, "trend": 3770.118131, "fair_value": 3440.057423, "relative_strength": -5.363391, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.938303, "energy": 11.237735, "activity_lines": [ 3790.8, 3798.172727, 3799.535714, 3792.976401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3839.5, "volume": 610, "typical_volume": 5987.5, "trend": 3779.567367, "fair_value": 3444.505413, "relative_strength": -5.799876, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.538443, "energy": 19.373024, "activity_lines": [ 3807.966667, 3805.427273, 3804.771429, 3797.45265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4013.0, "volume": 3011, "typical_volume": 5853.15, "trend": 3793.750073, "fair_value": 3450.372995, "relative_strength": -1.744148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.646354, "energy": 67.695764, "activity_lines": [ 3880.0, 3843.036364, 3825.964286, 3812.51282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }