{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdb9f056-10cc-44be-a504-f339693c3988", "symbol": "600449", "name": "Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.312, "architecture_energy": 14.106, "architecture_maturity": 21.277, "architecture_confidence": 71.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.55, "rotation_up": 49.34, "upward_expansion": 32.53, "deceleration": 30.89, "rotation_down": 22.42, "downward_expansion": 24.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.426, 12.996364, 13.075286, 13.093082 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.5, "trend_reference": 13.111543, "distance_from_trend": 0.182164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.834687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.154826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.164538, "excess_performance": 0.207742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182164, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174311, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181548, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269917, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.744261, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103409732, "relative_activity": 2.931721, "balance": 1.744261, "dry_up": 1.477171, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098909, "annualized_volatility": 0.489614, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.462264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.111543, "fair_value_reference": 13.834687, "structural_low": 10.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007375, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.002484, "regime_survival": 0.521739, "best_return": 0.225296, "worst_return": -0.12609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019316, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.005758, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.40871, "worst_return": -0.043284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011826, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.051991, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245396, "worst_return": -0.068422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001274, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.144162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.663099, "worst_return": -0.067356, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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12.70997, 12.943471, 13.010907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.7, "volume": 45094600, "typical_volume": 33164559.6, "trend": 12.987209, "fair_value": 13.857589, "relative_strength": -8.089168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.73658, "energy": 35.625645, "activity_lines": [ 12.124667, 12.446025, 12.816632, 12.926248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.08, "volume": 31541742, "typical_volume": 32485390.3, "trend": 13.006876, "fair_value": 13.839093, "relative_strength": 2.575544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.382508, "energy": 25.353881, "activity_lines": [ 12.428667, 12.486584, 12.829411, 12.932235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.5, "volume": 103409732, "typical_volume": 35272705.15, "trend": 13.111543, "fair_value": 13.834687, "relative_strength": 18.154826, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.312133, "energy": 14.105751, "activity_lines": [ 13.426, 12.996364, 13.075286, 13.093082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }