{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdbb8793-9769-4c17-8bb4-f264b56a490b", "symbol": "8300", "name": "Wataniya Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.938, "architecture_energy": 13.192, "architecture_maturity": 37.799, "architecture_confidence": 42.894, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.61, "rotation_up": 17.3, "upward_expansion": 11.76, "deceleration": 49.57, "rotation_down": 44.49, "downward_expansion": 66.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.682, 12.854727, 12.910238, 12.891656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.81, "trend_reference": 12.913, "distance_from_trend": 0.069465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.626026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.296343, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.558048, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022963, "excess_performance": 0.054792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069465, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.296343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03558, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.542222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4046820, "relative_activity": 2.532115, "balance": 1.542222, "dry_up": 1.370319, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082382, "annualized_volatility": 0.444624, "from_high_reference": -0.16303, "from_low_reference": 0.245266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.913, "fair_value_reference": 19.626026, "structural_low": 11.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049466, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.037998, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.145378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.141176, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.086546, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.569767, "worst_return": -0.278906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.057033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.799419, "worst_return": -0.227826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074118, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.131554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.472656, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032028, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.410526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125781, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.376923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025406, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 18.719999, "volume": 1262075, "typical_volume": 799067.9, "trend": 16.737333, "fair_value": 23.856134, "relative_strength": 13.89329, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"direction": 39.442754, "energy": 23.146508, "activity_lines": [ 13.186, 13.033273, 13.011714, 12.966344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.98, "volume": 1572737, "typical_volume": 1345196.35, "trend": 12.939, "fair_value": 19.748269, "relative_strength": -3.028975, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.620709, "energy": 17.321228, "activity_lines": [ 13.102, 13.042182, 13.021667, 12.968989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.54, "volume": 1413434, "typical_volume": 1358372.35, "trend": 12.934, "fair_value": 19.708526, "relative_strength": -6.458399, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.744828, "energy": 5.266753, "activity_lines": [ 12.892, 12.977455, 12.985524, 12.943247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.2, "volume": 1727172, "typical_volume": 1403272.45, "trend": 12.875667, "fair_value": 19.663013, "relative_strength": -14.204633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.428568, "energy": 48.553797, "activity_lines": [ 12.295333, 12.670545, 12.820857, 12.831376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.81, "volume": 4046820, "typical_volume": 1598197.75, "trend": 12.913, "fair_value": 19.626026, "relative_strength": 3.558048, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.938417, "energy": 13.19198, "activity_lines": [ 12.682, 12.854727, 12.910238, 12.891656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }