{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdc1af6a-87cd-48ef-8dbd-ce4f555d98f4", "symbol": "SMST", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short MicroStrategy (MSTR) ETP", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.129, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.093, "architecture_energy": 17.93, "architecture_maturity": 35.731, "architecture_confidence": 65.224, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.28, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 16.75, "deceleration": 63.92, "rotation_down": 38.82, "downward_expansion": 53.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.2616, 8.855073, 7.700157, 8.188247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.243, "trend_reference": 9.566583, "distance_from_trend": -0.347416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.975945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.478705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.121009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.654242, "excess_performance": -0.825134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.347416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.478705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.299986, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.43121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.265542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.654242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.402114, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66357, "relative_activity": 0.570384, "balance": 5.402114, "dry_up": 0.683258, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.577176, "annualized_volatility": 2.588274, "from_high_reference": -0.83127, "from_low_reference": 1.738158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.566583, "fair_value_reference": 11.975945, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.306025, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 29.83, "volume": 19158, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 36.845001, "volume": 3508, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 39.654999, 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null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.479, "volume": 64620, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.996, "volume": 63226, "typical_volume": 116571.3, "trend": 9.914883, "fair_value": 12.047606, "relative_strength": -15.189885, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.682473, "energy": 13.267867, "activity_lines": [ 9.1604, 9.29, 7.835817, 8.425143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.243, "volume": 66357, "typical_volume": 116337.5, "trend": 9.566583, "fair_value": 11.975945, "relative_strength": -43.121009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.093262, "energy": 17.929708, "activity_lines": [ 8.2616, 8.855073, 7.700157, 8.188247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }