{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdc63ef6-27f8-421c-aefb-08c6852c7e16", "symbol": "XPND", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII EXPANDED TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.176, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.001, "architecture_energy": 24.697, "architecture_maturity": 66.935, "architecture_confidence": 83.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 56.6, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 37.66, "downward_expansion": 22.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.768807, 39.154904, 39.085118, 38.118701 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.0907, "trend_reference": 36.966822, "distance_from_trend": 0.084505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.407817, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.075, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.161391, "excess_performance": 0.035766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.881868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13998, "relative_activity": 0.314358, "balance": 1.881868, "dry_up": 0.372697, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047999, "annualized_volatility": 0.213968, "from_high_reference": -0.052876, "from_low_reference": 0.266801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.966822, "fair_value_reference": 30.407817, "structural_low": 31.6472, "invalidation": "A 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41.398352, "volume": 41140, "typical_volume": 48087.95, "trend": 36.337985, "fair_value": 29.598608, "relative_strength": 4.195064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.031306, "energy": 74.855751, "activity_lines": [ 40.565365, 39.806928, 37.848561, 37.021687 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.4, "volume": 18915, "typical_volume": 48085.95, "trend": 36.443775, "fair_value": 29.717382, "relative_strength": 1.598907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.394921, "energy": 56.891639, "activity_lines": [ 40.242566, 39.863834, 38.129022, 37.219237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.7913, "volume": 17206, "typical_volume": 47191.0, "trend": 36.544404, "fair_value": 29.840712, "relative_strength": 0.484428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.442374, "energy": 50.743682, "activity_lines": [ 40.062008, 39.94682, 38.42351, 37.435206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.3619, "volume": 26157, "typical_volume": 47039.95, "trend": 36.686518, "fair_value": 29.96264, "relative_strength": 0.563921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.192363, "energy": 48.54084, "activity_lines": [ 40.155491, 40.09231, 38.745039, 37.681496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.3713, "volume": 30978, "typical_volume": 47318.35, "trend": 36.755234, "fair_value": 30.072857, "relative_strength": -2.804281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.588026, "energy": 29.416739, "activity_lines": [ 39.52509, 39.821886, 38.849023, 37.790192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.5763, "volume": 11901, "typical_volume": 45954.65, "trend": 36.782815, "fair_value": 30.175322, "relative_strength": -4.153023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.40228, "energy": 21.367166, "activity_lines": [ 38.762333, 39.407627, 38.858252, 37.843164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.8113, "volume": 9506, "typical_volume": 45590.85, "trend": 36.848353, "fair_value": 30.28275, "relative_strength": -4.478107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.96959, "energy": 21.354898, "activity_lines": [ 38.332713, 39.057994, 38.873473, 37.909518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.0907, "volume": 13998, "typical_volume": 44528.8, "trend": 36.966822, "fair_value": 30.407817, "relative_strength": -2.075, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.0014, "energy": 24.696697, "activity_lines": [ 38.768807, 39.154904, 39.085118, 38.118701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }