{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdca5cff-520f-42e1-9092-77df7d407545", "symbol": "NFTY", "name": "FIRST TRUST INDIA NIFTY 50 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.901, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.171, "architecture_energy": 10.573, "architecture_maturity": 13.391, "architecture_confidence": 63.242, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.85, "rotation_up": 31.27, "upward_expansion": 35.33, "deceleration": 30.75, "rotation_down": 26.28, "downward_expansion": 46.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.188333, 53.962273, 53.733778, 53.760314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 55.14, "trend_reference": 54.197347, "distance_from_trend": 0.017393, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.091114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.459557, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041889, "excess_performance": -0.229342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006021, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.229879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153622, "relative_activity": 0.948086, "balance": 1.229879, "dry_up": 0.984724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026524, "annualized_volatility": 0.161912, "from_high_reference": -0.074598, "from_low_reference": 0.111241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.197347, "fair_value_reference": 55.091114, "structural_low": 49.6202, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.00851, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.001802, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.082758, "worst_return": -0.11361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002368, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021801, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051944, "worst_return": -0.103762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018946, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.110439, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.10821, "worst_return": -0.118301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 53.907, 53.609545, 53.47447, 53.895211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.395, "volume": 35355, "typical_volume": 160297.15, "trend": 54.558635, "fair_value": 54.934322, "relative_strength": -14.111013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.337072, "energy": 10.961523, "activity_lines": [ 53.781, 53.589455, 53.471242, 53.810388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.76, "volume": 277332, "typical_volume": 164349.5, "trend": 54.399272, "fair_value": 54.973265, "relative_strength": -13.308887, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.089774, "energy": 17.992779, "activity_lines": [ 53.41, 53.467, 53.424085, 53.694347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.555, "volume": 171926, "typical_volume": 162636.8, "trend": 54.273235, "fair_value": 55.030345, "relative_strength": -10.422405, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.635543, "energy": 2.626924, "activity_lines": [ 53.717333, 53.673636, 53.556248, 53.704394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.14, "volume": 153622, "typical_volume": 162033.9, "trend": 54.197347, "fair_value": 55.091114, "relative_strength": -13.459557, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.170779, "energy": 10.573094, "activity_lines": [ 54.188333, 53.962273, 53.733778, 53.760314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }