{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdcea0fb-b988-42b3-aebf-3f3fa4c2c781", "symbol": "000848", "name": "Cheng De Lolo Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.778, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.078, "architecture_energy": 70.744, "architecture_maturity": 9.957, "architecture_confidence": 71.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.1, "rotation_up": 76.65, "upward_expansion": 90.18, "deceleration": 42.32, "rotation_down": 8.68, "downward_expansion": 14.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.577333, 8.274545, 8.156867, 8.066957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.79, "trend_reference": 7.994856, "distance_from_trend": 0.099457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.834778, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.066128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089062, "excess_performance": 0.081662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022178, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050661, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089062, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94969612, "relative_activity": 1.612656, "balance": 0.713878, "dry_up": 1.632968, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058135, "annualized_volatility": 0.279947, "from_high_reference": -0.0629, "from_low_reference": 0.228061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.994856, "fair_value_reference": 7.834778, "structural_low": 7.157625, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.016816, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.018687, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.129135, "worst_return": -0.110772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052122, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.012332, "worst_return": -0.137367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023006, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067572, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.132949, "worst_return": -0.146361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.02, "volume": 75558634, "typical_volume": 50629778.0, "trend": 7.938992, "fair_value": 7.82007, "relative_strength": -1.182881, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.994527, "energy": 22.674324, "activity_lines": [ 8.041333, 7.947328, 7.975261, 7.945518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.0, "volume": 137023006, "typical_volume": 56106446.05, "trend": 7.968697, "fair_value": 7.828406, "relative_strength": 12.87909, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.842721, "energy": 63.917271, "activity_lines": [ 8.400667, 8.137273, 8.078971, 8.01397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.79, "volume": 94969612, "typical_volume": 58890181.65, "trend": 7.994856, "fair_value": 7.834778, "relative_strength": 5.066128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.077889, "energy": 70.744135, "activity_lines": [ 8.577333, 8.274545, 8.156867, 8.066957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }