{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdd2d3c9-4550-4cba-8993-f38de15f7873", "symbol": "3050", "name": "U-Tech Media Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.93, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.692, "architecture_energy": 61.038, "architecture_maturity": 14.988, "architecture_confidence": 83.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.44, "rotation_up": 12.1, "upward_expansion": 12.69, "deceleration": 39.15, "rotation_down": 68.81, "downward_expansion": 88.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.206508, 11.520276, 11.875442, 12.147696 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.45, "trend_reference": 12.54588, "distance_from_trend": -0.08735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.243135, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.967017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133087, "excess_performance": -0.57446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000304, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037075, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.138454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3452717, "relative_activity": 0.85135, "balance": 2.138454, "dry_up": 0.761392, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081239, "annualized_volatility": 0.342595, "from_high_reference": -0.235077, "from_low_reference": 0.125319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.54588, "fair_value_reference": 15.243135, "structural_low": 10.174891, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.006098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.02225, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.077551, "worst_return": -0.122924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025697, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071883, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.098413, "worst_return": -0.267062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041525, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.140319, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266072, "worst_return": -0.371501, "sufficient": true }, { 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.272421, "energy": 59.417104, "activity_lines": [ 11.701125, 12.054223, 12.219887, 12.442887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.957576, "volume": 4751016, "typical_volume": 4824727.0, "trend": 12.658283, "fair_value": 15.279933, "relative_strength": -35.78686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.773663, "energy": 70.079725, "activity_lines": [ 11.394574, 11.820307, 12.077559, 12.328114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.006494, "volume": 1818476, "typical_volume": 4644035.25, "trend": 12.59469, "fair_value": 15.259373, "relative_strength": -36.167036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.947974, "energy": 71.868986, "activity_lines": [ 11.172814, 11.61841, 11.947811, 12.221547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.45, "volume": 3452717, "typical_volume": 4055577.45, "trend": 12.54588, "fair_value": 15.243135, "relative_strength": -34.967017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.69247, "energy": 61.037673, "activity_lines": [ 11.206508, 11.520276, 11.875442, 12.147696 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }