{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdd5229b-ad6c-4a5e-8302-fd30c93d8500", "symbol": "002696", "name": "Baiyang Investment Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.16, "architecture_energy": 48.099, "architecture_maturity": 75.607, "architecture_confidence": 83.831, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.28, "rotation_up": 26.58, "upward_expansion": 7.77, "deceleration": 60.75, "rotation_down": 44.54, "downward_expansion": 76.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.214667, 5.235782, 5.59553, 5.97496 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 6.477083, "distance_from_trend": -0.15394, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.75258, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.549861, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28084, "excess_performance": -0.28824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5289, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31204754, "relative_activity": 0.780296, "balance": 0.5289, "dry_up": 1.104035, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097409, "annualized_volatility": 0.338526, "from_high_reference": -0.310692, "from_low_reference": 0.18872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.477083, "fair_value_reference": 5.75258, "structural_low": 4.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009337, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.012442, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.211454, "worst_return": -0.164905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002016, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001488, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.328283, "worst_return": -0.203219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.162974, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.089411, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.347107, "worst_return": -0.201613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.22, "volume": 48165932, "typical_volume": 39952841.2, "trend": 6.669416, "fair_value": 5.778093, "relative_strength": -21.921362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.249301, "energy": 62.134466, "activity_lines": [ 5.272667, 5.418004, 5.886232, 6.257492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.72, "volume": 50067613, "typical_volume": 39956034.7, "trend": 6.58975, "fair_value": 5.767003, "relative_strength": -29.091805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.97117, "energy": 65.279091, "activity_lines": [ 5.091333, 5.253111, 5.736316, 6.131723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.21, "volume": 47167036, "typical_volume": 40565391.95, "trend": 6.530083, "fair_value": 5.760016, "relative_strength": -20.013714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.683854, "energy": 55.522719, "activity_lines": [ 5.114, 5.209334, 5.647542, 6.042707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 31204754, "typical_volume": 39990898.15, "trend": 6.477083, "fair_value": 5.75258, "relative_strength": -19.549861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.159576, "energy": 48.098943, "activity_lines": [ 5.214667, 5.235782, 5.59553, 5.97496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }