{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fde8a071-58d3-4844-88ce-9d7eca1e6792", "symbol": "601898", "name": "China Coal Energy Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.368, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.456, "architecture_energy": 34.75, "architecture_maturity": 40.964, "architecture_confidence": 47.622, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.78, "rotation_up": 25.81, "upward_expansion": 16.95, "deceleration": 65.65, "rotation_down": 39.53, "downward_expansion": 66.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.607333, 13.468182, 14.486857, 15.087097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.03, "trend_reference": 15.337, "distance_from_trend": -0.085219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.708676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.008152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025585, "excess_performance": 0.068789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085219, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 8.2e-05, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025585, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.75759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 264110492, "relative_activity": 1.313799, "balance": 1.75759, "dry_up": 1.500763, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097538, "annualized_volatility": 0.479971, "from_high_reference": -0.290339, "from_low_reference": 0.313086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.337, "fair_value_reference": 11.708676, "structural_low": 12.46, 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.67, "volume": 255948273, "typical_volume": 210725833.95, "trend": 15.235333, "fair_value": 11.5564, "relative_strength": -10.261, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.158469, "energy": 72.802547, "activity_lines": [ 12.982667, 14.115091, 15.417381, 15.53514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.54, "volume": 321380977, "typical_volume": 219796781.8, "trend": 15.223, "fair_value": 11.589769, "relative_strength": -5.814776, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.720476, "energy": 73.142419, "activity_lines": [ 12.660667, 13.684182, 15.068286, 15.361247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.67, "volume": 405108096, "typical_volume": 215686262.5, "trend": 15.242333, "fair_value": 11.628265, "relative_strength": 1.044674, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.732374, "energy": 60.953574, "activity_lines": [ 12.958, 13.533636, 14.839333, 15.261054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8, "volume": 216182298, "typical_volume": 202184829.85, "trend": 15.284, "fair_value": 11.66765, "relative_strength": 1.347273, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.857894, "energy": 47.959734, "activity_lines": [ 13.287333, 13.463818, 14.64019, 15.168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.03, "volume": 264110492, "typical_volume": 201028055.0, "trend": 15.337, "fair_value": 11.708676, "relative_strength": 0.008152, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.456223, "energy": 34.749501, "activity_lines": [ 13.607333, 13.468182, 14.486857, 15.087097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }