{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fdf2a5b7-25a7-489e-9de7-d94a4c589d6b", "symbol": "TUZA", "name": "TEUZA", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.856, "architecture_energy": 40.415, "architecture_maturity": 99.334, "architecture_confidence": 49.182, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.63, "rotation_up": 55.39, "upward_expansion": 40.23, "deceleration": 44.45, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 46.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.219867, 0.1954, 0.186062, 0.211452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.233, "trend_reference": 0.253033, "distance_from_trend": -0.079173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.363186, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.976261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.385224, "excess_performance": -0.414125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.307687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.385224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120396, "relative_activity": 0.171853, "balance": 0.574049, "dry_up": 0.443889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102344, "annualized_volatility": 0.737935, "from_high_reference": -0.43309, "from_low_reference": 1.219048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.253033, "fair_value_reference": 0.363186, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.01983, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02009, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.516529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035808, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.225549, "worst_return": -0.483333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115468, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026975, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.273731, "worst_return": -0.282092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.125578, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.168338, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103147, "worst_return": -0.643392, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06383, 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0.365628, "relative_strength": -36.48187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.148016, "energy": 31.329726, "activity_lines": [ 0.191467, 0.170818, 0.18251, 0.215551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.224, "volume": 195263, "typical_volume": 696057.3, "trend": 0.257733, "fair_value": 0.364391, "relative_strength": -33.008112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.122928, "energy": 29.551403, "activity_lines": [ 0.206867, 0.183127, 0.183614, 0.213047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.233, "volume": 120396, "typical_volume": 700577.1, "trend": 0.253033, "fair_value": 0.363186, "relative_strength": -29.976261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.855651, "energy": 40.414938, "activity_lines": [ 0.219867, 0.1954, 0.186062, 0.211452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }