{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe015147-c3d4-4ce1-be04-d85081d79265", "symbol": "002423", "name": "COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.201, "architecture_energy": 22.83, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.235, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.18, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 20.66, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 21.58, "downward_expansion": 54.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.055333, 8.907801, 9.099139, 9.472859 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.11, "trend_reference": 10.039034, "distance_from_trend": -0.092542, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.350694, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.695004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.196649, "excess_performance": -0.204049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094985, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196649, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304409, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69297545, "relative_activity": 1.11299, "balance": 0.304409, "dry_up": 1.430532, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059819, "annualized_volatility": 0.221914, "from_high_reference": -0.404575, "from_low_reference": 0.107008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.039034, "fair_value_reference": 10.350694, "structural_low": 8.229391, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010779, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.006088, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 1.338732, "worst_return": -0.104492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.050363, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.049983, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.912281, "worst_return": -0.163168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071066, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.179179, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.71525, "worst_return": -0.250427, "sufficient": true }, 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.77, "volume": 80541458, "typical_volume": 67928078.1, "trend": 10.3877, "fair_value": 10.319866, "relative_strength": -31.662685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.630737, "energy": 64.856724, "activity_lines": [ 8.666538, 8.799875, 9.333777, 9.786136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.94, "volume": 86288769, "typical_volume": 69615494.8, "trend": 10.3017, "fair_value": 10.327904, "relative_strength": -22.465871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.171264, "energy": 57.606215, "activity_lines": [ 8.763147, 8.784402, 9.250487, 9.692736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.85, "volume": 124690459, "typical_volume": 70803434.4, "trend": 10.211034, "fair_value": 10.334441, "relative_strength": -22.670464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.509095, "energy": 41.876437, "activity_lines": [ 8.816467, 8.775293, 9.169053, 9.599078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.27, "volume": 75997406, "typical_volume": 70313667.0, "trend": 10.125367, "fair_value": 10.343112, "relative_strength": -16.968057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.442324, "energy": 30.879981, "activity_lines": [ 8.997254, 8.856001, 9.138191, 9.538366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.11, "volume": 69297545, "typical_volume": 62262527.1, "trend": 10.039034, "fair_value": 10.350694, "relative_strength": -21.695004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.201175, "energy": 22.830499, "activity_lines": [ 9.055333, 8.907801, 9.099139, 9.472859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }