{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe0a33a7-d85b-4c5d-a62b-b8f023809c6a", "symbol": "GAL", "name": "Galileo Mining Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.456, "architecture_energy": 29.452, "architecture_maturity": 99.382, "architecture_confidence": 79.696, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.81, "rotation_up": 26.68, "upward_expansion": 16.0, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 59.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.121667, 0.119909, 0.125619, 0.139677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.164333, "distance_from_trend": -0.269777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.192837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.377711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.991808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454545, "excess_performance": -0.518251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.377711, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279801, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175530, "relative_activity": 0.352025, "balance": 0.364833, "dry_up": 0.543467, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163462, "annualized_volatility": 0.688598, "from_high_reference": -0.612903, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.164333, "fair_value_reference": 0.192837, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.01676, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024702, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.295455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.155556, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.12837, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.434783, "worst_return": -0.522388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.123123, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.137091, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.604478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -61.277447, "energy": 55.143078, "activity_lines": [ 0.117667, 0.120091, 0.133595, 0.152172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 128194, "typical_volume": 809268.2, "trend": 0.171, "fair_value": 0.200176, "relative_strength": -31.35193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.0224, "energy": 51.160054, "activity_lines": [ 0.118333, 0.119091, 0.130786, 0.148796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 353121, "typical_volume": 726099.6, "trend": 0.168667, "fair_value": 0.197548, "relative_strength": -30.802143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.936669, "energy": 38.056917, "activity_lines": [ 0.119, 0.118909, 0.128524, 0.145505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 427110, "typical_volume": 679000.15, "trend": 0.166667, "fair_value": 0.195016, "relative_strength": -29.287921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.444558, "energy": 30.856098, "activity_lines": [ 0.122, 0.119818, 0.127143, 0.142688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 175530, "typical_volume": 498629.45, "trend": 0.164333, "fair_value": 0.192837, "relative_strength": -33.991808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.45574, "energy": 29.452437, "activity_lines": [ 0.121667, 0.119909, 0.125619, 0.139677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }