{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fe0c5ab9-ff95-4a08-a756-7a395309c7f2", "symbol": "600822", "name": "Shanghai Material Trading Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.112, "architecture_energy": 44.922, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.187, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.03, "rotation_up": 26.74, "upward_expansion": 19.04, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 43.81, "downward_expansion": 69.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.117333, 8.116, 8.540381, 8.983978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.16, "trend_reference": 9.632, "distance_from_trend": -0.152824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.159423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.350694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26087, "excess_performance": -0.217666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17526972, "relative_activity": 1.284653, "balance": 0.304905, "dry_up": 1.175342, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067968, "annualized_volatility": 0.242675, "from_high_reference": -0.399558, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.632, "fair_value_reference": 10.159423, "structural_low": 7.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.010034, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.004176, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.256906, "worst_return": -0.161068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.080097, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.014171, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.616095, "worst_return": -0.191364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041173, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011938, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.48665, "worst_return": -0.290267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.177419, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.02, "volume": 55957849, "typical_volume": 71219978.75, "trend": 9.819667, "fair_value": 9.379423, "relative_strength": 41.085992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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9.120286, 9.565441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.96, "volume": 11545501, "typical_volume": 13843284.8, "trend": 9.981, "fair_value": 10.298718, "relative_strength": -27.47185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.667062, "energy": 86.382445, "activity_lines": [ 8.034667, 8.368364, 8.964095, 9.428624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.33, "volume": 18787136, "typical_volume": 13982047.05, "trend": 9.908667, "fair_value": 10.264615, "relative_strength": -18.901181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.247795, "energy": 75.890116, "activity_lines": [ 8.100667, 8.297091, 8.857762, 9.322108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.78, "volume": 16033298, "typical_volume": 13686876.7, "trend": 9.805333, "fair_value": 10.227692, "relative_strength": -24.008583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.853876, "energy": 67.007003, "activity_lines": [ 7.995333, 8.156545, 8.712667, 9.184774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 11795026, "typical_volume": 13469818.0, "trend": 9.717, "fair_value": 10.190064, "relative_strength": -19.009126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.922144, "energy": 56.178709, "activity_lines": [ 8.087333, 8.134545, 8.625905, 9.08443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.16, "volume": 17526972, "typical_volume": 13643352.1, "trend": 9.632, "fair_value": 10.159423, "relative_strength": -21.350694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.111863, "energy": 44.921895, "activity_lines": [ 8.117333, 8.116, 8.540381, 8.983978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }